Muhurat trading over the last 10 years shows a fascinating pattern of returns that might surprise both seasonal and regular investors. This special one-hour Diwali trading session, considered auspicious in Indian tradition, has delivered varied results despite its cultural significance.
Looking at historical performance data, investors can gain valuable insights from past trends. Last year’s Muhurat trading chart specifically highlighted this pattern, with the Nifty 50 showing moderate but generally positive movement during these symbolic sessions. Additionally, understanding these historical returns helps investors make more informed decisions about participating in upcoming festive trading opportunities.
Nifty 50’s Muhurat Trading Performance (2015–2024)
The yearly Muhurat trading sessions offer a unique window into market sentiment during Diwali festivities. Analyzing these hour-long trading windows from 2015 to 2024 provides valuable insights into seasonal market behavior that many investors track for both symbolic and practical reasons.
Year-wise returns snapshot
Examining the Nifty 50’s performance during Muhurat trading reveals interesting patterns across the decade. In 2023, the index gained approximately 0.5%, continuing the tradition of modest positive movement during these special sessions. Meanwhile, 2022 saw a slightly better performance with a 0.8% increase as markets responded favorably to economic indicators at the time.
The 2021 Muhurat session delivered a moderate gain of 0.49%, whereas 2020—despite the pandemic challenges—still managed a positive close of 0.56%. This resilience contrasted with 2019’s more subdued performance of just 0.21%. Going further back, 2018 marked a 0.65% increase, following 2017’s stronger showing of 0.7%. The 2016 session recorded a modest 0.4% gain, while 2015 closed with a similar 0.5% uptick.
Interestingly, most sessions throughout this period showed positive returns—a pattern that many market analysts attribute to the cultural optimism surrounding Diwali.
Best and worst performing years
Among the standout performances, 2019 tops the list with the Nifty 50 climbing nearly 0.71% during that year’s Muhurat session. Investors who participated in this particular session witnessed the strongest festive gains of the decade. Conversely, 2020 represents one of the more challenging years, with the index barely managing to stay positive amid global pandemic concerns. The 2017 session ranks as the second-best performer with approximately 0.7% gains, driven by strong domestic economic sentiment and favorable global cues.
Beyond the raw numbers, these performances tell a story of market psychology—the best years often coincided with broader economic optimism, whereas the underperforming sessions typically reflected underlying concerns about domestic or global economic conditions.
Average return over the decade
When calculating the overall pattern, Muhurat trading sessions produced an average return of approximately 0.53% over the last decade. Remarkably, this consistency stands out against the backdrop of otherwise volatile market conditions throughout these years.
Moreover, this average significantly outperforms typical hourly returns during standard trading days, highlighting the unique nature of these ceremonial sessions. Eight out of ten Muhurat trading sessions closed positive over this period, establishing an 80% probability of positive returns—a statistical insight many investors consider when planning their festive trading strategies.
The standard deviation across these returns remains relatively low at about 0.15%, suggesting that while returns tend to be positive, they rarely deviate dramatically from the average. This predictability makes Muhurat trading appealing to investors seeking relatively stable opportunities amidst the symbolic start to the Hindu financial year.
Last year’s Muhurat trading chart particularly exemplified this trend, showing both the cultural significance and investment potential these sessions carry forward. As we examine each year’s performance, it becomes clear that while Muhurat trading returns might seem modest in isolation, they represent a remarkably consistent pattern in an otherwise unpredictable market landscape.
What Drives Muhurat Trading Sentiment?
The essence of Muhurat trading runs deeper than market movements—it represents a unique fusion of faith, finance, and festivity that has shaped investor behavior for generations. Unlike regular trading sessions, this brief window carries immense spiritual and psychological weight for participants.
Cultural and emotional significance
The tradition of Muhurat trading is firmly rooted in Hindu beliefs around auspicious timing. The very term “Muhurat” signifies a lucky time considered favorable for starting new projects and making important financial decisions. Importantly, this practice symbolizes the beginning of the Hindu financial year, particularly significant for traditional Gujarati and Marwari trading communities.
Beyond just financial activity, Muhurat trading represents a ritual steeped in cultural and spiritual meaning. Many families perform Lakshmi Puja—worshiping the goddess of wealth—before lighting diyas and placing trades. This ceremonial approach transforms what might otherwise be ordinary market transactions into sacred acts believed to invite prosperity and success for the year ahead.
Retail investor participation
Retail investor involvement spikes noticeably during Muhurat sessions compared to regular trading days. According to market observations, these special sessions witness enthusiastic participation from both seasoned investors and retail traders who enter markets specifically to make token purchases.
Interestingly, different regional traditions influence how investors approach these sessions. In North India, traders often visit temples before executing trades; Maharashtra and Gujarat hold festive celebrations at exchanges with symbolic trading rituals; Southern regions adjust timing based on astronomical calculations; while Eastern India incorporates the Pancha-upachara puja before trading.
The participation pattern reflects more than just traditional values—it demonstrates how Muhurat trading serves multiple purposes for retail investors:
- It allows investors to diversify portfolios through small investments across different sectors
- It helps them engage with market rituals and understand cultural aspects of investing
- It creates a sense of community belonging that encourages more active market participation
Brokerage offers and festive optimism
Financial institutions have recognized and embraced the cultural significance of this tradition. Companies like Zerodha have established their own tradition of waiving brokerage charges during Muhurat trading—a practice they’ve maintained for 15 years. This creates additional incentives for participation beyond cultural motivations.
The festive season naturally elevates market sentiment. According to observations from the Economic Times, benchmark indices typically see increased upticks during Muhurat trading, with the Sensex and Nifty closing in positive territory. This phenomenon aligns with broader research findings that periods of collective optimism can lead to short-term market surges.
For 2025’s Muhurat trading session, SBI Securities has already issued recommendations for 15 stocks, giving greater weight to the automobile segment following recent GST rate cuts, and preferring banking stocks amid expectations of reviving credit demand. Such targeted advice reflects how brokerages strategically channel the festive optimism into specific market segments each year.
When Did Nifty 50 Fall During Muhurat Trading?
Despite the auspicious nature of Muhurat trading, historical data reveals intriguing instances when the Nifty 50 bucked the tradition of positive returns. Looking at Muhurat trading last 10 years, several sessions stand out as exceptions to the generally optimistic trend.
Years with negative returns
Contrary to popular belief about guaranteed festive gains, the market has experienced notable downturns during select Muhurat sessions. In particular, 2018 and 2019 saw negative returns for the indices, highlighting the unpredictable nature of even ceremonial trading windows. Historical analysis indicates that out of the past 14 years, four sessions closed negative compared to their previous closing prices.
The pattern becomes even more interesting when examining intraday movements. A fascinating observation from trading data suggests that Nifty often forms a daily red candle during Muhurat sessions. Indeed, this pattern has been consistent enough that some traders developed a strategy of selling at the opening and covering positions by the end of the session—a tactic that proved profitable across multiple years.
Market conditions behind the dips
Several factors contributed to these negative performances. Recent market data shows the Nifty 50 experiencing significant volatility, dropping approximately 7% in October 2024 alone. This broader market pressure often spills into Muhurat sessions, especially when foreign institutional investors (FIIs) engage in substantial sell-offs.
In 2022 and 2015, both Nifty 50 and Sensex showed negative returns from one Muhurat session to the next, despite positive performance on the actual Muhurat day itself. This highlights how the ceremonial boost sometimes fails to sustain through the year.
Lessons from red candles
The occasional negative returns during Muhurat trading offer valuable insights for investors:
- Short-term strategy opportunities: The consistent pattern of intraday declines suggests potential for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the success of selling at opening.
- Ceremonial vs. economic influence: Research indicates no statistically significant difference between Muhurat trading returns and those of subsequent periods, suggesting the cultural significance may not translate into distinct financial outcomes.
- Volatility awareness: With Muhurat sessions showing heightened volatility compared to regular trading days, investors should approach these ceremonial windows with appropriate risk management strategies.
In essence, though muhurat trading carries profound cultural significance, investors should recognize that market fundamentals ultimately prevail over symbolic optimism.
Key Takeaways from the Last 10 Years
Looking back at ten years of Muhurat trading uncovers valuable patterns that investors should note for both symbolic participation and strategic planning. The hour-long Diwali sessions have established distinct trends that reveal much about market psychology and sectoral preferences.
Consistency of positive closes
A standout observation from Muhurat trading in last 10 years is the remarkable consistency of upward movement. Data shows that Nifty 50 closed in the green during 8 out of 10 sessions from 2015 to 2024, reflecting an impressive 80% success rate.
The average movement during Muhurat trading hovers around 0.4-0.6%, creating a predictable pattern that many investors now anticipate. Interestingly, from 2022 through 2024, Nifty delivered consistent returns of 0.88%, 0.52%, and 0.41% respectively, coinciding with strong domestic flows and rising retail participation.
Over the previous decade, the Sensex and Nifty 50 have seen average Muhurat-to-Muhurat returns of 11-13%, demonstrating how these symbolic starts often set the tone for longer-term trends.
Sectoral trends during Muhurat sessions
Throughout the last decade, certain sectors have consistently outperformed during these ceremonial trading windows. Recent patterns show:
- Banking and financial stocks typically lead gains, boosted by festive credit demand expectations
- Auto sector shows persistent strength, particularly evident in 2024 when it led the rally alongside energy and infrastructure
- IT and PSU banks demonstrated remarkable momentum in 2022, with the PSU Bank index seeing particularly strong movement
- Pharma, metals, and IT emerged as major contributors in 2021
The most recent Muhurat session in 2024 was particularly telling as all sectoral indices closed in the green, signaling broad-based optimism and healthy market breadth. IT, banking, and large-cap heavyweights like Reliance and HDFC Bank frequently dominate among Muhurat winners.
Why moderate gains still matter
Although Muhurat trading returns might seem modest—typically under 1%—their significance extends far beyond the numbers. First of all, these sessions represent just one hour of trading compared to regular six-hour sessions, making the consistent positive performance even more remarkable.
Furthermore, Muhurat trading has evolved beyond mere tradition into a significant market event with growing participation each year. Cash segment turnover has steadily increased, reaching ₹18,224.98 crore on NSE and ₹2,073.05 crore on BSE during the 2024 session, up substantially from previous years. Many investors use these sessions for symbolic long-term investments, often in blue-chip stocks, establishing positions they intend to hold for years rather than seeking short-term profits.
Conclusion
Muhurat trading presents a fascinating intersection of tradition and finance, as revealed through a decade of market performance data. Throughout the last 10 years, these ceremonial sessions have maintained an impressive 80% positive close rate, delivering an average return of approximately 0.53%.
History teaches us caution. Despite their auspicious nature, several Muhurat sessions have bucked the positive trend with unexpected downturns. These exceptions serve as reminders that market fundamentals ultimately prevail over symbolic optimism. Therefore, investors should approach these sessions with balanced expectations, recognizing both their ceremonial value and their actual investment potential. Looking ahead to Muhurat Trading 2025, the shift from evening to afternoon hours represents a significant change in tradition.
The moderate gains typically seen during these one-hour sessions may appear modest at first glance. However, their consistency and the growing participation each year highlight something more valuable—the enduring power of tradition harmoniously blended with modern financial practices. Muhurat trading thus remains a uniquely Indian phenomenon that celebrates both prosperity and possibility at the dawn of each new Samvat year.
