Trump declares ceasefire with Iran “over,” crude oil surges past $78, and Dalal Street posts its worst session in three months — is the recent rally already unravelling?
The Sensex ended 1,677.12 points or 2.15% down at 76,503.60, and the Nifty50 fell 516.65 points or 2.12% to 23,882.05. The indices posted the worst session in over three months.
Nifty MidCap 100 down 1.55%
Nifty SmallCap 100 down 2.24%
Impact on the stock market
Tension between the US and Iran flared up after US President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran was over, but the negotiation can go on after both parties exchanged strikes at the Strait of Hormuz. Except four constituents of the Nifty50 index, all ended in red.
Sectoral performance showed weakness across the board:
Relative outperformers: Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma
Lagging sectors: Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Bank, Nifty FMCG
| Sector/Index | Performance |
| IT & BPM sector | -1.58% |
| Healthcare sector | -0.89% |
| Oil & Gas sector | -2.23% |
| Real estate sector | -1.72% |
| PSU Bank in India | -2.72% |
Top gainers today
| Company | Share Price (in ₹) | Change % |
| ONGC | 247.00 | +1.15 |
| Bajaj Auto | 10,214.00 | +0.65 |
| Hindalco Industries | 975.70 | +0.42 |
| Coal India | 382.50 | +0.40 |
Top losers today
| Company | Share Price (in ₹) | Change % |
| InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) | 5,120.00 | -5.10 |
| Jio Financial Services | 229.67 | -5.02 |
| Shriram Finance | 1,015.00 | -4.86 |
| Maruti Suzuki | 13,245.00 | -3.88 |
| Hindustan Unilever | 2,680.00 | -3.36 |
Market aftermath: Impact on stocks
IndiGo crashes 5.1% as crude oil spike and market share dip deliver a double blow
InterGlobe Aviation, the parent company of IndiGo, was the biggest loser on the Nifty50, tumbling 5.1% as oil prices surged past $76 per barrel during the session.
- Crude oil prices directly impact aviation fuel costs, which is the single largest expense for any airline. The renewed US-Iran hostilities at the Strait of Hormuz have made the oil outlook even more uncertain.
- DGCA data released on Wednesday showed that IndiGo’s domestic market share in May slipped to 64.9%, while Air India Group’s market share climbed to 25.6%.
- IndiGo and SpiceJet both traded lower, with SpiceJet’s market share shrinking to 2.5%. Indian airlines carried 1.53 crore domestic passengers in May, over 11% higher than April.
Jio Financial Services tumbles 5.02% and slides towards 52-week low
Jio Financial Services was the second-biggest loser on the Nifty50, falling 5.02% to ₹229.67 — dangerously close to its 52-week low of ₹223.30.
- The stock has shed 21.7% over the past six months and continues to underperform the broader market amid limited earnings visibility.
- The broad risk-off sentiment triggered by geopolitical fears hammered financial stocks especially hard, with the Nifty Bank index declining nearly 3%.
- Despite launching initiatives like the JioFinance app and the JioBlackRock asset management joint venture, the company is yet to show meaningful operating revenue from its financial services business, keeping valuations stretched.
ONGC bucks the trend — only major gainer, up 1.15%
While almost the entire market bled, ONGC rose 1.15% to close at ₹247.00, emerging as the top performer on the Nifty50 index.
- It was one of only 4 stocks in the entire Nifty50 to close in the green — joined by Bajaj Auto (+0.65%), Hindalco Industries (+0.42%), and Coal India (+0.40%).
- ONGC’s gain is a classic oil-price beneficiary play — as crude surged roughly 6.3% intraday to over $78.83 per barrel on the Iran-US escalation, upstream oil producers stand to benefit from higher realisations on crude sales.
- Analysts expect upstream oil producers like ONGC to remain in demand as long as geopolitical risk keeps crude elevated, acting as a natural hedge for portfolios.
Crude oil and commodity trends
Crude oil prices surged more than 6% after US President Donald Trump said that the interim agreement with Iran is “over,” though he will allow talks to continue:
- Brent crude: $78.80 per barrel (+6.3%)
- US WTI crude: $75.00 per barrel (+6.4%)
Trump made the comments following US strikes on more than 80 Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria, in retaliation for attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz:
- Crude prices had declined recently from spikes well above $100 a barrel to around pre-war levels before this sharp reversal.
- Iran and the US had agreed to allow ships to pass through the strait without paying charges for 60 days, but Tehran insisted on controlling vessel routes and threatened to charge fees for passage.
- The ships attacked on Tuesday all appeared to be using a route close to Oman’s shore, rather than one ordered by Tehran.
For India, any sustained increase in oil prices directly worsens the trade deficit, pushes up inflation and complicates the Reserve Bank of India’s path towards interest rate cuts.
Conclusion
Wednesday’s session was marked by heavy selling pressure driven by geopolitical escalation:
- Benchmarks: Nifty50 down 2.12%, Sensex down 2.15% — worst session in over three months
- Sectoral leaders (least hit): Nifty Metal, Nifty Pharma
- Underperformers: Nifty PSU Bank (-2.72%), Nifty Private Bank (-2.52%), Nifty FMCG (-2.49%)
- Stock catalysts: IndiGo (-5.1%), Jio Financial (-5.02%), ONGC (+1.15%)
- Macro factors: Crude oil above $78, US-Iran ceasefire collapse, India VIX spiked 30%, Strait of Hormuz disruption.
