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Indian stock market rises on US–China trade optimism and rate-cut hopes

Markets kick off the week on a high note — but what really drove Monday’s rally?

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The BSE Sensex climbed 566.96 points (0.67%) to close at 84,778.84, while the NSE Nifty50 gained 170.9 points (0.67%) to finish at 25,966.05. Broader markets were also upbeat, with the Nifty MidCap index up 0.93% and the Nifty SmallCap rising 0.82%.

The mood turned bullish after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that President Donald Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods were “off the table”, with Beijing expected to increase soybean imports and delay restrictions on rare earth exports. The move boosted investor confidence globally.

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Impact on the stock market

Sector-wise performance

The sectoral performance was broad-based, with cyclicals taking the lead. Nifty PSU Bank, Realty, Metal, and Oil & Gas indices rose over 1% each, reflecting strong risk-on sentiment. Meanwhile, Media and Pharma were the only laggards of the day.

Sector/IndexPerformance
IT & BPM sector0.40%
Healthcare sector-0.00%
Oil & Gas sector1.52%
Real estate sector1.46%
PSU Bank in India2.22%

Top gainers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
SBI Life Insura 1,903.103.44
Grasim 2,923.902.91
Bharti Airtel 2,080.102.50
Reliance 1,484.102.24
Eternal 333.702.17

Top losers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
Kotak Mahindra 2,148.60-1.76
Bharat Elec 415.15-1.63
Infosys 1,504.50-1.37
ONGC 253.27-0.66
Adani Ports 1,420.60-0.59

Market aftermath: Impact on stocks

Federal Bank jumps 3% after Blackstone’s $705 million investment

Federal Bank shares surged over 3% to hit a 52-week high of ₹235.20 after announcing that Blackstone will invest $705 million (approx. ₹5,900 crore) for a 9.9% stake in the lender through preferential equity shares and warrants.

The deal will make Blackstone the largest shareholder in Federal Bank and allow the firm to nominate a non-executive director to the board. Brokerages welcomed the move, calling it a “strategic infusion” that strengthens the balance sheet and boosts investor confidence.

  • Investec said the investment alleviates equity dilution concerns and adds global expertise.
  • PL Capital raised its target price to ₹250 (around 10% upside) and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, highlighting that the deal provides flexibility for inorganic expansion.

Federal Bank’s Q2 FY26 results showed a 10% YoY decline in net profit to ₹955 crore, but net interest income rose 5% to ₹2,495 crore, and asset quality improved with net NPA down to 1.83%. The stock has rallied 36% from its March low of ₹172.66, reflecting rising optimism around the bank’s long-term growth story.

SBI Life up 3% post Q2 results; brokerages remain bullish

SBI Life Insurance gained 3% to ₹1,898 after reporting a resilient operating performance in Q2 FY26. Though net profit slipped 6.6% YoY to ₹494.6 crore, net premium income surged 22.6% to ₹24,848 crore, driven by strong growth in both first-year and renewal premiums.

The insurer’s 13th-month persistency ratio improved to 85.4%, showing stronger policyholder retention, while total assets jumped to ₹4.83 lakh crore.

Brokerages stayed optimistic about its prospects:

  • Citi reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating with a target of ₹2,550, noting 14% YoY VNB growth and 100-bps margin expansion.
  • Jefferies also maintained a ‘Buy’ with a target of ₹2,270, praising the improved product mix and growth momentum in September.

SBI Life has now outperformed the Nifty 50, rising 18% over the past year as analysts bet on steady margin resilience and long-term business mix improvement.

Dr Reddy’s slips 1% as Q2 profit misses estimates

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories fell around 1% to ₹1,270, after its Q2 FY26 results missed profit expectations. The pharma major reported a 7% YoY rise in net profit to ₹1,347 crore, falling short of the ₹1,450 crore estimate, while revenue rose 10% to ₹8,828 crore.

The weak performance in North America (down 13% YoY) offset solid growth in India (+13%) and Europe (+138%). Analysts flagged pricing pressure in the US and one-off costs as near-term concerns.

Brokerage calls were mixed:

  • Nuvama retained a ‘Buy’ with a ₹1,475 target, saying margins excluding the Revlimid generic stood at a healthy 19-20%.
  • Macquarie was Neutral with a ₹1,190 target, warning of potential regulatory setbacks for Semaglutide (Ozempic) filings in Canada.
  • Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-weight at ₹1,389, noting growth drivers in biosimilars and GLP-1 drugs.

While near-term profitability may stay under pressure, most brokerages remain confident in the company’s diversified portfolio and long-term growth story.

Crude oil ticks higher amid US–China trade optimism

Crude oil prices edged up on Monday as hopes of a US–China trade truce lifted market sentiment.

  • Brent January futures were up 0.11% to $65.27/barrel.
  • WTI December futures rose 0.15% to $61.59/barrel.
  • On the MCX, November crude oil traded at ₹5,434, up 0.13%, while December futures were up 0.20% to ₹5,413.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the leaders are set to discuss a “successful framework” for a trade deal during the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. Commodities strategists at ING Think said the “improved tone” of trade talks helped extend the rally.

In other commodities:

  • Natural gas rose 2.28% to ₹353.70 on MCX.
  • Jeera gained 0.87% to ₹19,685 on NCDEX.
  • Cottonseed oilcake was up 0.77% to ₹2,892.

Conclusion

Monday’s session painted a picture of renewed optimism on Dalal Street. Global tailwinds — led by easing trade tensions and expectations of rate cuts — fuelled a broad-based rally, lifting the indices to new highs.

Investors celebrated strong performances from Federal Bank and SBI Life, while keeping an eye on Dr Reddy’s for recovery signs in the coming quarters. Commodity markets echoed the positive sentiment, hinting that traders are once again betting on a softer global macro environment ahead.

As earnings season progresses and macro indicators stabilise, the next leg of the market’s rally may well depend on domestic fundamentals — and how India continues to hold its ground amid global uncertainties.

For more stock market insights, check out the StockGro blog.

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Rohan Malhotra

Rohan Malhotra is an avid trader and technical analysis enthusiast who’s passionate about decoding market movements through charts and indicators. Armed with years of hands-on trading experience, he specializes in spotting intraday opportunities, reading candlestick patterns, and identifying breakout setups. Rohan’s writing style bridges the gap between complex technical data and actionable insights, making it easy for readers to apply his strategies to their own trading journey. When he’s not dissecting price trends, Rohan enjoys exploring innovative ways to balance short-term profits with long-term portfolio growth.

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