Avenue Supermarts stock analysis and expert insights in detail

Stock overview

Ticker	Avenue Supermarts
Sector	Retail
Market Cap	₹ 2,77,200 Cr
CMP (Current Market Price)	₹ 4,261
52-Week High/Low	₹ 5,485/3,337
Beta	0.9 (Low volatility)

About Avenue Supermarts India Ltd.

Avenue Supermarts Ltd. was founded by the legendary investor and entrepreneur Radhakishan Damani in 2002. With a unique EDLP (Everyday Low Pricing) strategy and strict focus on operational efficiency, DMart has grown to over 370 stores, dominating the Indian organized retail landscape with a loyal customer base and robust store-level profitability.

Primary growth factors for Avenue Supermarts India Ltd

1. Value Pricing Strategy: Everyday Low Pricing ensures high footfalls and volume-driven margins.
2. Store Expansion: Aggressive yet disciplined expansion into Tier 2/3 cities.
3. Supply Chain Strength: In-house logistics reduces costs and ensures inventory efficiency.
4. Private Labels: Growing contribution from private label products supports higher margins.
5. Urban Consumption Growth: Rising discretionary spending in urban India sustains growth runway.

Q4 FY25 financial performance

Metric	Q4 FY 25	YoY Growth	QoQ Growth
Revenue	₹ 14,871 cr	17%	-7%
Operating Expense	₹ 14,157 cr	18%	-5%
Operating Income	₹ 714 cr	-4%	-27%
PAT	₹ 551 cr	-2%	-24%

Avenue Supermarts delivered a mixed bag of results in Q4 FY 25. While they have reported a healthy double digit growth of 17% in revenue, their expenses have also risen by 18% which has put a dent on their overall profitability.  

Detailed competition analysis for Avenue Supermarts India

Company	Market Cap	Revenue	P/E Multiple	RoCE
Avenue Supermarts	₹ 2,77,200 cr	₹ 14,871 cr	102 x	18%
Vishal Mega Mart	₹ 60,200 cr	₹ 2,547 cr	95 x	13%
V Mart Retail	₹ 6,200 cr	₹ 780 cr	290 x	8%
Electronics Mart	₹ 5,500 cr	₹ 1,718 cr	34 x	10%

The valuation looks fair to slightly expensive, but its execution consistency and MOAT justify premium multiples.

Company valuation insights: Avenue Supermarts India

As per the Discounted Cash Flow analysis:

It estimates the intrinsic value of Avenue Supermarts shares based on expected future cash flows:

• Intrinsic Value Estimate: ₹4650 per share
• Upside Potential: 10%
• WACC: 10.5%
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3%

Major risk factors affecting Avenue Supermarts India

• Competitive Pressures: E-commerce giants and quick-commerce apps eating into grocery market share.
• Rising Rentals: New leases in urban areas could impact store-level margins.
• Execution Risk: Large-scale expansion always risks diluting operational excellence.
• Premium Valuation: Leaves little cushion if growth falters.

Technical analysis of Avenue Supermarts India

• Resistance: ₹4500
• Support: ₹ 4120
• Momentum: Neutral
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 41 (Neutral)
• 50-Day Moving Average: ₹4380
• 200-Day Moving Average: ₹4190
• MACD: Positive crossover; bullish divergence

Technically bullish with potential for breakout above ₹4500

Avenue Supermarts India stock recommendation by Ketan Mittal

Recommendation: Buy on dips / Long-term accumulate

Target Price: ₹4400 (6-month horizon); ₹4650 (12-month horizon); 

Investment Horizon: 2–4 years for stable returns

Rationale

Recommend a Buy on Dips / Accumulate approach for Avenue Supermarts.

Recommendation

Accumulate / Buy on Dips

DMart’s proven retailing strategy, robust balance sheet, and razor-sharp execution make it a solid long-term compounder. Its moat in supply chain and low-price leadership gives comfort even in volatile consumption cycles.

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Conclusion

Avenue Supermarts (DMart) remains a best-in-class retail play, albeit at rich valuations. For long-term investors who value predictable execution, it could still deliver steady compounding, though near-term upside might be capped without a major trigger.