Bajaj Auto stock analysis and expert insights in detail

Stock overview

Ticker	BAJAJAUTO
Sector	Automobiles
Market Cap	₹ 2,40,300 Cr
CMP (Current Market Price)	₹ 8,607
52-Week High/Low	₹ 12,774/7,088
Beta	1.13 (Moderate volatility)

About Bajaj Auto Ltd.

Bajaj Auto Ltd, a part of the Bajaj Group, is India’s leading exporter of two- and three-wheelers. It is known for its robust portfolio of motorcycles, scooters, and auto-rickshaws. The company’s flagship brands include Pulsar, Avenger, Dominar, Platina, CT, and the RE auto rickshaw series. It has a strong footprint in more than 70 countries, making it one of the largest Indian auto exporters.

Key Business Segments

1. Motorcycles
   • Bajaj ranks among the top motorcycle manufacturers in India.
   • Pulsar and Dominar continue to be popular among performance bike buyers.
2. Three-Wheelers (RE)
   • Market leader in the three-wheeler segment (including cargo and passenger variants).
   • Strong rural and urban penetration.
3. Electric Vehicles
   • Chetak EV seeing traction in premium urban mobility.
   • Plans to expand EV lineup across price points.
4. International Business
   • 40%+ revenue from exports.
   • Strong presence in Africa, Latin America, and South Asia.

Primary growth factors for Bajaj Auto India Ltd

1. Rural Recovery and Premiumization

• Strong domestic demand recovery in rural and Tier 2/3 cities.
• Increasing shift toward premium bikes aids margin expansion.

2. Electric Mobility Push
   • Chetak EV gaining ground; Bajaj investing in EV infra and R&D.
   • Multiple EV models in the pipeline.
3. Export Strength
   • Well-diversified international markets buffer against domestic cyclicality.
   • Opportunity to deepen market share in Africa, LATAM, ASEAN.
4. Strong Balance Sheet
   • Zero net debt, large cash reserves (~₹17,000 crore).
   • Enables strategic investments and generous dividends.
5. Strategic Alliances
   • Partnership with KTM and Triumph adding value through premium and global tech collaboration. 

Q4 FY25 financial performance

Metric	Q4 FY 25	YoY Growth	QoQ Growth
Revenue	₹ 12,204 cr	8%	-4%
Expenses	₹ 10,219 cr	9%	-4%
PAT	₹ 1,801 cr	-10%	-18%
EPS	64.6	-9%	-18%

1. Bajaj Auto has delivered moderate results in Q4 FY 25.  Both revenue and profits have risen by high single digit vs last year.
2. The company has delivered a 10% lower profit post tax vs last year. The stock was positioned well before the results with the market expecting good results. In the absence of any euphoria around the results, investors should be wary of any sudden uptick in the stock price in the short term.

Detailed competition analysis for Bajaj Auto India

Company	Market Cap	Revenue	P/E Multiple	RoCE
Bajaj Auto	₹ 2,40,300 cr	₹ 12,204 cr	33 x	28%
Eicher Motors	₹ 1,46,200 cr	₹ 5,241 cr	31 x	30%
TVS Motor	₹ 1,32,100 cr	₹ 11,542 cr	59 x	19%
Hero Motocorp	₹ 86,100 cr	₹ 9,969 cr	20 x	31%

Bajaj Auto is valued decently at the moment compared to its peers, and it remains a key player in the automobile industry

Company valuation insights: Bajaj Auto India

As per the Discounted Cash Flow analysis:

It estimates the intrinsic value of Bajaj Auto shares based on expected future cash flows:

• Intrinsic Value Estimate: ₹9900 per share
• Upside Potential: 16%
• WACC: 10.4%
• Terminal Growth Rate: 3.1%

Major risk factors affecting Bajaj Auto India

• Competition in the EV segment from Ola, TVS, Ather.
• Dependency on commodity prices (aluminum, rubber, steel).
• Export volatility due to currency, geopolitical risk.
• Regulatory risk around emission norms and subsidies.

Technical analysis of Bajaj Auto India

• Resistance: ₹8800
• Support: ₹8000
• Momentum: Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 50 (Neutral)
• 50-Day Moving Average: ₹8100
• 200-Day Moving Average: ₹8500
• MACD: Positive crossover; bullish divergence

Technically bullish with potential for breakout above ₹8800

Bajaj Auto India stock recommendation by Ketan Mittal

Recommendation: Buy on dips / Long-term accumulate

Target Price: ₹9200 (6-month horizon); ₹9990 (12-month horizon); 

Investment Horizon: 2–4 years for stable returns

Rationale

Recommend a Buy on Dips / Accumulate approach for Bajaj Auto.

Bajaj Auto combines the resilience of a traditional auto leader with emerging bets on electric mobility. It boasts a strong export base, improving profitability, and a robust balance sheet that allows reinvestment and returns to shareholders. Despite near-term EV challenges, Bajaj’s ability to scale and adapt across markets makes it a compelling long-term play.

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Conclusion

Bajaj Auto remains a high-quality business with strong return ratios, cash flows, and brand recall. While short-term volatility in EV penetration and exports exists, its fundamentals remain intact. Long-term investors may consider accumulating on dips.