ONGC stock analysis and expert insights in detail

Stock overview

Ticker	ONGC
Sector	Oil and Gas
Market Cap	₹ 3,16,000 Cr
CMP (Current Market Price)	₹ 251
52-Week High/Low	₹ 345/205
Beta	1.1 (Moderate volatility)

About ONGC India Ltd.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is India’s premier government-owned oil and gas exploration company, responsible for producing over 70% of India’s crude oil and nearly 60% of its natural gas. Established in 1956, ONGC plays a crucial role in ensuring India’s energy security and has a strong upstream presence across domestic and international assets.

Primary growth factors for ONGC India Ltd

1. Strong Government Backing and Strategic Importance

• ONGC is a Maharatna PSU and the most significant player in India’s oil & gas exploration and production.
• Strategic support from the government ensures policy advantages and capital backing.
• Strong involvement in India’s energy transition plans and expansion of natural gas infrastructure.

2. Domestic and Global Expansion

• Increased capex for exploration activities in the Krishna-Godavari basin, Mumbai High, and Northeast India.
• Global presence through ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) with 32 projects in 15 countries.

3. Transition to Cleaner Energy

• ONGC is investing in renewable energy, hydrogen, and carbon capture.
• Signed MoUs with global players to diversify energy portfolio and reduce emissions.

4. Elevated Oil and Gas Prices: Global crude prices remain supportive due to geopolitical tensions and supply curbs.

5. Higher Domestic Demand: Growing fuel consumption and increased use of gas for power and industrial purposes.

6. Government’s push for gas-based economy: Targets to increase natural gas share to 15% in energy mix by 2030.

7. Digitization and Cost Optimization: Smart drilling technologies and AI-led field optimization improving efficiency.

8. Exploration Upside: Recent discoveries in KG Basin and Assam-Arakan fold belt to boost future output.

Q4 FY25 financial performance

Metric	Q4 FY 25	YoY Growth	QoQ Growth
Operating Revenue	₹ 28,247 cr	12%	4%
Operating Expenses	₹ 9,196 cr	2%	25%
PBDIT	₹ 16,036 cr	-17%	-15%
PAT	₹ 19,012 cr	30%	45%

ONGC has delivered decent results in Q4 FY 25. While the revenue has grown at a healthy pace on YoY and QoQ level, there has been an even better growth in the overall profitability .

Detailed competition analysis for ONGC India

Company	Market Cap	Revenue	P/E Multiple	RoCE
ONGC	₹ 3,16,400 cr	₹ 1,70,811 cr	9 x	12%
Oil India	₹ 76,500 cr	₹ 8,808 cr	12 x	13%
Prabha Energy	₹ 3,400 cr	₹ 1 cr	NA	-1%
Hind Oil Exploration	₹ 2,200 cr	₹ 43 cr	15 x	12%

• ONGC is a bell-weather in the Oil and Gas sector and no other company comes close to the scale of ONGC.
• From a valuation perspective, ONGC is fairly valued at the moment.

Company valuation insights: ONGC India

As per the Discounted Cash Flow analysis:

It estimates the intrinsic value of ONGC shares based on expected future cash flows:

• Intrinsic Value Estimate: ₹290 per share
• Upside Potential: 16%
• WACC: 9.6%
• Terminal Growth Rate: 2.7%

Major risk factors affecting ONGC India

• Volatility in global crude prices impacting revenue and margins.
• Policy risks and taxation changes from the Indian government.
• ESG and global energy transition could reduce long-term fossil fuel demand.
• High capex requirements may strain free cash flows.

Technical analysis of ONGC India

• Resistance: ₹250
• Support: ₹ 228
• Momentum: Neutral to Bullish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 46 (Neutral)
• 50-Day Moving Average: ₹240
• 200-Day Moving Average: ₹229
• MACD: Positive crossover; bullish divergence

Technically bullish with potential for breakout above ₹250

ONGC India stock recommendation by Ketan Mittal

Recommendation: Buy on dips / Long-term accumulate

Target Price: ₹270 (6-month horizon); ₹290 (12-month horizon); 

Investment Horizon: 2–4 years for stable returns

Rationale

Recommend a Buy on Dips / Accumulate approach for ONGC.

Recommendation

Accumulate / Buy on Dips

Strong financials and earnings consistency

Healthy dividend yield with undervalued valuation

Positive demand outlook and exploration upside

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Conclusion

ONGC remains the backbone of India’s energy sector. With strong government backing, financial resilience, and robust margins, it is well-positioned to ride the global commodity cycle while also venturing into clean energy. For value investors and dividend seekers, ONGC is a solid long-term bet with upside potential and low downside risk.