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Markets end flat amid rising tensions: Is volatility making a comeback?

Indices held steady—but with global tensions rising and volatility spiking, should investors be cautious now?

share market price

The Nifty 50 edged up just 11.30 points (0.05%) to close at 24,364.85, while the Sensex gained 27 points (0.03%) to settle at 78,520.30.

The India VIX surged 10.5% to 19.01, indicating that traders are expecting bigger swings ahead.

Impact On The Stock Market

The Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Media indices outperformed, while the Nifty IT and Realty sectors declined the most. This suggests that investors are rotating money into sectors that are less sensitive to global shocks, while avoiding rate-sensitive and export-heavy sectors.

Banking stocks had a mixed day. The Nifty Bank index closed almost flat at 56,582.35 (+0.03%), reflecting indecision among investors. However, there was a clear divergence within the sector:

PSU Banks outperformed, with the index rising 0.87%

Private Banks lagged, with the index falling 0.34%

Sector/IndexPerformance
IT & BPM sector-0.70%
Healthcare sector-0.16%
Oil & Gas sector0.21%
Real estate sector-0.62%
PSU Bank in India0.87%

Top gainers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
Trent4,242.803.29
JSW Steel1,274.502.76
SBI1,107.852.55
Asian Paints2,516.802.14
Grasim2,760.101.46

Top losers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
Jio Financial237.15-2.75
Hindalco1,015.25-2.29
TMPV355.70-1.22
Kotak Mahindra379.20-1.15
Bharat Electronics457.55-1.12

Market aftermath: Impact on stocks

Banking stocks: Strong earnings but mixed reactions

Banking stocks remained in focus after Q4 results, but the reaction was mixed.

ICICI Bank emerged as a bright spot, gaining around 0.6%, supported by strong earnings. The bank reported higher profits, better loan growth, and improved asset quality, driven by lower credit costs. Brokerages remain optimistic, with target prices ranging between ₹1,600 and ₹1,800.

In contrast, HDFC Bank slipped 0.6% to ₹795, despite reporting a profit beat. The market was cautious due to weaker core performance, especially slower growth in interest income and margin pressures.

Yes Bank, despite reporting a 45% jump in net profit, saw its stock fall 1.8%, reflecting cautious sentiment. While fundamentals are improving, analysts believe the turnaround will take time.

This divergence highlights a key trend—earnings alone are not enough; markets are also focusing on future growth visibility and consistency.

BHEL: Strong growth fuels momentum

Shares of BHEL (Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited) rose up to 5.5%, driven by strong operational performance.

The company reported an 18% rise in revenue to ₹32,250 crore in FY26, reflecting solid growth across segments. It also secured ₹75,000 crore worth of new orders, taking its total order book to a massive ₹2.4 lakh crore.

The company continues to dominate in the power sector with ₹59,000 crore in orders, while its industrial segment added another ₹16,000 crore, showing diversification across sectors.

This strong order pipeline gives visibility for future growth, which is why investors are showing renewed interest in the stock.

Power and AC stocks: Heatwave drives demand

Power and cooling-related stocks saw buying interest as heatwave conditions intensified across North India.

With temperatures expected to cross 43°C, demand for electricity and cooling appliances is likely to rise sharply.

Stocks like:

  • NTPC gained 1.31% (₹398.75)
  • Tata Power rose 1.77% (₹435.15)
  • Adani Power jumped 2.62% (₹203.70)

Similarly, AC manufacturers benefited:

  • Voltas rose 1.10%
  • Blue Star gained 2.30%

This is a classic seasonal trade—higher temperatures drive higher demand, which directly benefits power producers and cooling companies.

However, there’s a flip side. Consumers in Delhi may face higher electricity bills as regulators move to recover ₹30,000 crore in pending dues, potentially impacting demand in the long run.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply, reflecting escalating geopolitical tensions.

Brent crude jumped 5.60% to $95.44, while WTI crude rose 6.03% to $87.57. On the domestic front, crude futures on MCX also climbed over 6%, indicating strong upward pressure.

The spike came after the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo vessel, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil route.

This situation is particularly concerning because:

  • The Strait of Hormuz handles a significant portion of global oil supply
  • Any disruption can lead to supply shortages and price spikes
  • Ongoing tensions reduce the chances of successful peace talks

Even though there were earlier signs of de-escalation, recent developments suggest that tensions are far from over.

For India, rising crude prices could lead to:

  • Higher fuel costs
  • Increased inflation
  • Pressure on sectors like aviation, logistics, and manufacturing

This makes crude oil one of the most important variables to watch in the coming days.

Conclusion

Today’s market action may look calm on the surface, but the underlying signals tell a different story.

Flat indices, rising volatility, and weak market breadth all point towards growing uncertainty. Investors are not panicking—but they are clearly cautious.

The biggest driver right now is global developments. Rising tensions in West Asia, uncertainty around US-Iran talks, and surging crude oil prices are all adding to the risk.

At the same time, stock-specific opportunities continue to emerge—whether it’s strong earnings in banks, growth visibility in BHEL, or seasonal demand boosting power stocks.

For investors, this is not the time to chase momentum blindly. It’s a phase to stay selective, manage risk, and keep an eye on global cues.

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Rishi Gupta

Rishi Gupta is a dynamic day trader known for his quick decision-making and strategic approach to short-term market movements. With years of experience in high-frequency trading and chart analysis, Rishi specializes in spotting intraday trends and capitalizing on price fluctuations. His trading philosophy is rooted in discipline, risk control, and technical analysis. Through his writing, Rishi aims to help aspiring day traders understand the nuances of short-term trading, with an emphasis on risk-reward ratios, momentum, and timing.

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