- Summary
- The Sensex crashed 2,037.73 points to close at 68,069.33 while the Nifty 50 plunged 666.35 points to end at 21,165.90 on Monday, 12 October 2026, their lowest closes since May 2025, after the US resumed large-scale strikes on Iran over the weekend and Tehran announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude spiking above $112.
- Every sectoral index ended deep in the red, with Nifty Metal plunging 5.2%, Realty down 4.8%, PSU Bank losing 4.1% and Auto falling 3.7%, while Adani Ports, IndusInd Bank and Tata Steel led the Nifty losers and only defensives Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India closed higher.
- The India VIX surged 22% to 24.85, its highest since June 2024, the rupee crashed past 97 to a record low of 97.42 before RBI intervention, and foreign investors sold an estimated ₹11,200 crore.
- Oil producers and safe-haven plays bucked the crash, with ONGC up 4.6%, Oil India gaining 5.8% and gold loan companies rallying as gold hit a record ₹1,52,900 per 10 grams.
The Sensex fell 2,037.73 points, or 2.91%, to close at 68,069.33, while the Nifty 50 ended 666.35 points, or 3.05%, lower at 21,165.90, the sharpest single-day fall of the entire conflict.
The broader market fared worse still. The Nifty MidCap 100 plunged 3.84% and the Nifty SmallCap 100 crashed 4.12%, deepening the pattern of smaller stocks falling fastest when liquidity is tested.
Impact on the stock market
Sectoral losers: Every sector closed deep in the red, led by Nifty Metal at -5.2% and Nifty Realty at -4.8%, with PSU banks and auto following as the market priced in costlier oil, higher rates and slower growth at once.
Relative strength: Hindustan Unilever and Nestle India were the only Nifty gainers as money rushed into consumer staples, while upstream oil producers rallied outside the index.
| Sector/Index | Performance |
| IT & BPM sector | -0.79% |
| Healthcare sector | -0.05% |
| Oil & Gas sector | -0.44% |
| Real estate sector | 0.76% |
| PSU Bank in India | -1.18% |
Top gainers today
| Company | Share Price (in ₹) | Change % |
| Dr Reddys Labs | 1,229.40 | 1.88 |
| Bajaj Auto | 10,034.00 | 1.54 |
| TMPV | 284.45 | 1.29 |
| Bharat Electronics | 373.90 | 1.09 |
| BSE Limited | 3,330.20 | 0.69 |
Top losers today
| Company | Share Price (in ₹) | Change % |
| Apollo Hospital | 7,775.00 | -3.15 |
| ITC | 257.90 | -3.05 |
| Tech Mahindra | 1,471.00 | -2.85 |
| Larsen | 3,627.50 | -2.05 |
| Max Healthcare | 865.95 | -2.02 |
Market aftermath: Impact on stocks
Operation Midnight Reckoning: The Weekend That Changed the Market’s Maths
The selloff traces to Saturday night, when the US launched its largest strike wave of the conflict, codenamed Operation Midnight Reckoning, involving more than 200 aircraft including B-2 bombers hitting Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, naval bases at Bandar Abbas and missile production facilities. Iran retaliated on Sunday with over 40 ballistic missiles aimed at US bases in Qatar and the UAE, most of which were intercepted, and then announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice”, with its navy mining the approaches. By Monday, two large crude tankers had turned back and marine insurers at Lloyd’s had suspended war-risk cover for Gulf transits, the first such suspension since the tanker wars of the 1980s.
India’s response moved on two tracks, with the foreign ministry expressing deep concern and advising citizens in Gulf countries to register with embassies, while the petroleum ministry said crude inventories and strategic reserves cover about 45 days of imports and that fuel prices would be reviewed “if required”. The UN Security Council met in emergency session on Monday evening. For markets, the essential change is that Hormuz has gone from a disrupted route to a closed one, and every asset repriced accordingly.
Banks and the Rupee: A Twin Shock of Rate Risk and Growth Risk
Financials absorbed the worst of the equity damage, with IndusInd Bank sliding 7.2% to ₹612 after Jefferies downgraded it to Hold, and the Bank Nifty falling 3.9% to 50,480, closing below its 200-week average for the first time since the Covid crash. Jefferies framed the problem as a twin shock, with rate risk and growth risk arriving together, and the interest rate swap market now prices roughly a 60% chance that the RBI calls an out-of-turn meeting to raise rates again. The bond market agreed, with the 10-year government bond yield jumping 18 basis points to 7.52% in its worst day since February 2025.
The rupee told the same story, crashing past 97 to a record low of 97.42 before closing at 97.18, with dealers estimating the RBI sold $3 to 4 billion to steady it. Nomura’s arithmetic explains the pressure, since every $10 rise in crude widens India’s current account deficit by 0.4% of GDP and adds 30 to 35 basis points to inflation. Kotak’s Sanjeev Prakash called Monday “panic, not capitulation”, and chart watchers now place support at 20,800 to 21,000 with resistance near 21,800, levels that will define the week.
The Other Side of the Trade: Staples, Oil Producers and Gold Plays Rally
Even on a 2,000-point down day, money had destinations, with Hindustan Unilever rising 2.1% to ₹2,610, Nestle India gaining 1.8% and Britannia adding 1.2% as investors paid up for businesses whose demand survives any oil price. The more aggressive hedge was upstream oil, with ONGC jumping 4.6% to ₹312 and Oil India surging 5.8%, since domestic producers sell crude at prices linked to global benchmarks and higher realisations flow almost directly into their earnings. TCS edged up 0.4% as Friday’s results continued to find buyers.
Gold completed the safe-haven set, with domestic futures hitting a record ₹1,52,900 per 10 grams, up 3.2%, which in turn lifted gold loan companies Muthoot Finance by 6.3% and Manappuram Finance by 4.9%, since the value of the collateral behind their loan books just rose. Analysts summarised the playbook as upstream energy, staples and gold-linked names for protection, while avoiding leveraged midcap exposure until the dust settles. It is a defensive menu, but Monday showed it works.
Crude Oil: Brent Tops $112 as the World Reaches for Strategic Reserves
Oil recorded its sharpest spike of the conflict, with Brent surging 12.4% intraday to a peak of $114.80 before trading at $112.35, up 10.2%, while WTI rose 10.8% to $104.90 and domestic futures on the MCX jumped 9.9% to a record contract high of ₹10,640. With 100% of Hormuz transits halted against the earlier partial disruption, Qatar declaring force majeure on all LNG cargoes and tanker freight rates for alternate routes up 400%, the forecasts have moved into new territory, with Goldman Sachs warning a sustained closure could push Brent to $130-150 and JPMorgan setting $120 as its base case while the strait stays shut.
The counterattack is coming from stockpiles, with the US announcing a 30 million barrel release from its strategic reserve and the International Energy Agency coordinating a 60 million barrel global release that includes Japan, South Korea and India. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, moving 5.8 million barrels a day, remains only a partial bypass for the closed strait. Reserves buy time rather than replace supply, so the oil market’s question is simple, and it is how long the closure lasts.
Conclusion
Monday was the day the conflict stopped being a risk and became a reality, with Hormuz closed, Brent above $112, the rupee at a record low and the Sensex losing 2,038 points in its worst session of the crisis. The market’s internal logic still worked, with staples, oil producers and gold plays rallying on cue, TCS holding its post-results gains, and strategists drawing clear lines at 21,000 on the Nifty and $120 on Brent. India enters the storm with 45 days of crude cover, coordinated reserve releases and a central bank already defending the currency, but the swap market’s 60% odds of an emergency rate hike show how quickly the pressure could escalate. Everything now depends on whether diplomacy can reopen the strait before the reserves run thin, and until there is news on that front, the levels to watch are 20,800 on the downside and every headline out of the Gulf.
