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Market Update: Friday’s Bounce, Bigger Bets On Defence, AI & Oil

After Thursday’s rout, are investors rotating into defence, AI and minerals?

share market news

BSE Sensex: 82,814.71, up 316.57 points (+0.38%)

NSE Nifty 50: 25,571.25, up 116.90 points (+0.46%)

The broader market also showed a mixed picture:

  • Nifty MidCap 100: up 0.48%
  • Nifty Smallcap: down 0.11%

Impact on the stock market

Sector-wise performance

  • Nifty Public Sector Bank index: up over 1%
  • Nifty Metal index: up over 1%
  • FMCG, private banks, oil and gas, and auto also closed higher
  • Nifty Information Technology index: down nearly 1%
Sector/IndexPerformance
IT & BPM sector-0.98%
Healthcare sector0.27%
Oil & Gas sector0.47%
Real estate sector0.35%
PSU Bank in India1.68%

Top gainers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
Hindalco935.703.32
NTPC372.952.68
Larsen4,380.602.34
SBI Life Insurance2,080.001.81
Coal India423.551.78

Top losers today

CompanyShare Price (in ₹)Change %
Tech Mahindra1,456.90–1.51
Infosys1,353.20-1.26
Grasim2,832.80-1.10
HCL Tech1,436.50-0.96
Eternal269.45-0.85

Market aftermath: Impact on stocks

Defence Stocks Jump On Rafale Co-Production Signal

Defence stocks rallied after French President Emmanuel Macron said India and France are set to jointly produce Rafale fighter jets and helicopters, reigniting optimism around domestic manufacturing and long-term order visibility. 

The Nifty India Defence index rose over 1.3%, with Data Patterns jumping over 6% and Bharat Dynamics (BDL) gaining nearly 3%. Paras Defence climbed 2.5%, Bharat Electronics (BEL) rose 2%, while HAL and GRSE added around 1.5% each. Markets are also tracking the bigger numbers behind the theme — an expected 114 Rafale follow-on order and a defence allocation of ₹7.85 lakh crore (up 15%+), along with defence proposals worth ₹3.6 lakh crore cleared in principle, which together keep the sector firmly on investors’ radar.

GMDC Rises As India Joins ‘Pax Silica’ Minerals Alliance

GMDC gained over 3.5% after India joined the US-led ‘Pax Silica’ alliance aimed at strengthening supply chains for critical minerals and artificial intelligence infrastructure. The stock traded around ₹580.7, while Orissa Minerals Development Company rose nearly 2%. 

The market’s takeaway is straightforward: as AI and advanced manufacturing scale up, the raw materials behind chips, data centres, and energy storage become strategically important — and that can mean stronger policy attention and long-term demand support for domestic mineral producers.

Morgan Stanley Flags Reliance’s AI Spending As The Next Big Pivot

Reliance stayed in focus after Morgan Stanley reiterated it as a top pick, with a target price of ₹1,803 — implying 28% upside from Thursday’s close — on the back of its ₹10 lakh crore artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure plan over seven years. The roadmap includes multi-gigawatt, AI-ready data centres supported by up to 10GW of renewable energy capacity, storage, and chip infrastructure. 

The first 120MW is expected in the second half of 2026, and Morgan Stanley estimates the first 1GW phase could need $12–15 billion in spending. Reliance shares rose 0.9% to ₹1,422.2 on Friday, and with the stock already up 15.3% over the past year (versus the Nifty’s 11.7%), investors are clearly watching whether this AI bet becomes the next big value driver like telecom and retail were earlier.

Crude Oil: India’s Import Mix Is Shifting Again

While markets bounced back, the bigger macro story remains energy — especially as sanctions and geopolitics reshape India’s crude sourcing. With Russian crude imports narrowing due to US and EU sanctions, Saudi Arabia’s shipments to India are expected around 1 million barrels per day in February 2026, the highest in over six years. Tracking data suggests Saudi volumes were running at about 1.4 million barrels per day month-to-date (as of February 19), the highest since November 2019, although the full-month average is expected closer to 1–1.1 million barrels per day. 

Meanwhile, Russian imports are estimated at 1–1.2 million barrels per day in February, easing toward 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day in March, indicating a gradual stabilisation at a lower baseline rather than a full exit. Add Saudi Aramco cutting Arab Light’s selling price to Asia by $0.30 per barrel for March, and it’s clear India’s crude basket is rotating back toward traditional Middle East suppliers — a shift that can influence everything from inflation expectations to market sentiment.

Conclusion

Friday’s session brought relief after Thursday’s rout, with the Sensex closing at 82,814.71 (+0.38%) and the Nifty at 25,571.25 (+0.46%), led by PSU banks and metals. But the more interesting story is the rotation underneath: defence stocks surged on fresh co-production signals, mineral names moved on a strategic supply chain narrative, and artificial intelligence spending is increasingly shaping how big investors look at India’s corporate heavyweights. At the same time, crude oil remains the key swing factor — not just on prices, but on where India sources its barrels from. The market may be green today, but it’s still trading with one eye on geopolitics and the other on long-term “strategic” themes.

For more stock market insights, check out the StockGro blog.

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Rohan Malhotra

Rohan Malhotra is an avid trader and technical analysis enthusiast who’s passionate about decoding market movements through charts and indicators. Armed with years of hands-on trading experience, he specializes in spotting intraday opportunities, reading candlestick patterns, and identifying breakout setups. Rohan’s writing style bridges the gap between complex technical data and actionable insights, making it easy for readers to apply his strategies to their own trading journey. When he’s not dissecting price trends, Rohan enjoys exploring innovative ways to balance short-term profits with long-term portfolio growth.

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