SC Hearing Tomorrow Could Test Paytm's Rally

Tomorrow (Monday, September 28), the Supreme Court will hear a plea challenging the government's new UPI Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) framework, the same policy that's been driving

's recent rally. The challenge: A petition argues the government's September 14-15 MDR notification lacks proper legal safeguards and public consultation, and questions why RuPay debit cards stay exempt from charges while UPI doesn't. The policy: From October 15, a 0.4% MDR applies to UPI person-to-merchant transactions above ₹2,000, capped at ₹300 for larger payments. Why it matters for Paytm: The MDR announcement sent Paytm shares up 7.25% to a 52-week high of ₹1,855.50, and brokerages like Jefferies (target ₹2,100) and Bernstein (target above the ₹2,150 IPO price) raised targets specifically citing this new fee as a fresh revenue stream. The risk: Since Paytm's entire recent momentum is tied to this policy, a stay or unfavorable court signal tomorrow could directly undercut the rally's thesis. A dismissal or deferral, on the other hand, would likely let the current bullish narrative continue unaffected.