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Naveen Kumar

6th Aug · SEBI-Registered Analyst

$MUTHOOTMF

Good chance. Muthoot Microfin. Historical trend: Financial-sector (NBFC-MFI) template. Sharp turnaround from a Mar25 crisis quarter (-401 NP, heavy provisioning during sector-wide MFI stress) to steady sequential recovery: Jun25 (6), Sep25 (31), Dec25 (62), Mar26 (71) - Interest Income stable ~210-232 throughout, GNPA improving from 4.61% to 3.89% (Sep24, latest disclosed). This is a genuine multi-quarter healing trend, not one-off; Jun26 YoY comparison is an easy base given Jun25's still-depressed 6cr profit. Q1FY27 signal: Company's own Q1FY27 business update (already released 10 Jul'26) showed AUM +18% YoY/+3% QoQ to Rs14,457cr, disbursements +49% YoY, collection efficiency improved to 97.97% from 93.00% YoY - a strong, concrete confirmatory data point. Management raised FY27 AUM growth guidance from 12-15% to 20% and CRISIL upgraded rating to AA- (Jun'26) on improved asset quality/capitalization. Industry-wide MFI sector also stabilizing per ICRA (FY27 AUM growth 15-17% rebound). Stock reaction note: Stock rallied sharply to ~265 on the Jul'26 business-update news, but has since reversed hard to 230, now below both SMA20/50 with a failed-breakout pattern - high sell-on-result risk as gains from the AUM update have already been given back, suggesting the market may treat Q1 numbers as already priced in.

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