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Naveen Kumar

27th May · SEBI-Registered Analyst

$VADILALIND

before anything : you need to understand Vadilal's business first. They are one of India's biggest ice cream brands with ~16% market share in organized segment. And the thing about ice creams is it's extremely seasonal : Q1 (Apr-Jun, summer) is the blockbuster quarter, Q3 (Oct-Dec, winter) is always terrible. So you can't compare quarters directly! Past Trend Check: Looking at the pattern : Q1 FY25 PAT was ₹77 Cr, Q1 FY26 was ₹67 Cr : already showing some softness YoY. The full year profitability declined despite higher revenues. Margins were squeezed through FY26 due to higher milk prices and raw material costs which impacted the full year. Analyst Estimates vs Actual: Analysts expected Q4 PAT between ₹56-66 Cr. Actual came in at ~₹55 Cr : just slightly below the lower end. Revenue was also broadly in-line. So Q4 was "as expected," not a big beat. Competitors & Market Trend: Peers like Amul (unlisted) and Mother Dairy dominate, but in listed space, Vadilal competes with Hatsun Agro and La Opala. Ice cream sector saw pricing pressure in FY26 due to elevated input costs. Vadilal's 8-15% revenue growth is respectable, but profit margins are clearly under pressure industry-wide. Crux: Q4 alone looks great : 150% profit jump YoY. But zoom out, and the full year story is that profits fell compared to last year. The big doubled dividend is a positive surprise. Honest assessment " it's a normal result with a good Q4 bounce, but FY26 as a whole was a step back from FY25 in terms of profitability.

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