Mazagon Dock: order book halves as the big deals wait

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (NSE: MAZDOCK) grew Q1 FY27 profit 21.5% to ₹549 crore. Its order book fell to ₹18,218 crore, from ₹32,260 crore fifteen months ago. What happened Revenue rose 12.1% to ₹2,943 crore. EBITDA jumped 48% to ₹447 crore, lifting margin to 15.2% from 11.5%. The order book now covers roughly one and a half years of sales. Two contracts are pending: the Project 75I submarine programme worth about ₹70,000 crore, and three more Kalvari class submarines. Together they could add over ₹1 lakh crore. Why it matters Beyond warships, the company is building a second engine. It owns 51% of Colombo Dockyard, which does ship repair and commercial vessels. It has an offshore order from ONGC and is building India's first green methanol supply vessel. These are smaller, but do not depend on defence budgets. My view Look past the profit line. Of ₹3,256 crore of total income, ₹313 crore was other income, mostly interest on a cash pile of ₹12,878 crore. That is a big slice of profit coming from the bank, not the shipyard. Then the order book. It has almost halved in five quarters. Execution has been excellent, which is the problem. There is little behind the current ships until the submarine contracts are signed. At around 39 times earnings, the stock already prices in those signatures. If the contracts slip another year, revenue flattens from FY28 and the multiple has no support. What I am watching Cabinet approval and signing of Project 75I, the order book steadying, and Q2 FY27 results. On the chart, ₹2,057 is the 52-week low and ₹3,061 is the high. My stance: Wait for the contract. Accumulate near ₹2,200, not at ₹2,500. Disclosure: I do not hold a position in Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited at the time of writing. This is not investment advice.