Mangalore Refinery falls 10% from high after unit fire

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited had a fire at its Coker Hydrotreater Unit on 30 September, and the stock fell 10 percent from Rs 180.80 to Rs 162.40 within the session. What MRPL has filed: - 30 September, around noon: a high-pressure Cold Separator ruptured; one worker died - 1 October: three spot export tenders (diesel, jet fuel, reformate) withdrawn as a precaution; MRPL says nil material impact on commercial operations - Only that unit was hit; the rest of the refinery runs normally - NSE closes: Rs 171.62 on 29 September, Rs 164.76 on 1 October, down 4.0% I found no restart date or damage estimate. The fire fell on the last day of Q2, so its cost lands in Q3 FY27, not in Q2 results (date not yet out; last year 15 October). MRPL [$MRPL][***** shares trade at Rs 162.45 at 12:39 PM IST on 5 October on StockGro, 22 percent below the 52-week high. P/E 9.07; sector P/E near 13. My view: hold, not a fresh entry. The 9x P/E is a cycle multiple, not a margin of safety. Quarterly EPS over the last four quarters ran Rs 3.58, 8.28, 0.67 and 5.40. Q1 FY27 PAT was Rs 946 crore against a Rs 271 crore loss a year ago, but Rs 471.76 crore of the Rs 1,246 crore PBT was exceptional income from price revisions. The fire adds an operating question to earnings that already swing. Holders stay into Q2 results for a restart timeline; fresh money waits for a dated restart. Support Rs 162.40 (30 September low); resistance Rs 171.62 (29 September close, before the fire). My exit is a close below Rs 162.40, or a restart date after 31 December. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.