Tata Motors Iveco offer of €3.82 bn ends 26 Oct

|Tata Motors Limited, the commercial vehicle company since the 2025 demerger, has a €3.82 billion cash offer for Iveco Group open until 26 October. Iveco holders vote on 16 October; payment is due 30 October. Offer facts: - €14.10 a share in cash, via TML CV Holdings B.V. - Acceptance 7 Sep to 26 Oct; reopening 2 to 6 Nov if triggered - Minimum acceptance 95%, or 80% with the back-end resolution; Exor (27.06%) is committed to tender - Funding: committed €3.825 billion bridge from Morgan Stanley and MUFG - Margins: Tata Motors EBITDA 10.9% in Q1 FY27 vs 11.8%; Iveco industrial adjusted EBIT 2.8% in Q2 2026 vs 4.2% Tata Motors [][***** shares closed at Rs 410.95 on 1 October on StockGro (NSE Rs 415.50), 9.7 percent below the 3 September close, the day Consob cleared the offer. P/E 36.11 includes a Rs 1,135 crore fair-value gain in Q1 PAT. My view: hold, not a fresh entry. The offer is about 27 percent of market cap, bridge-funded, for a business whose industrial margin is falling. The 2025 plan was about €1 billion from equity and a Tata Capital stake sale; I found no update, so dilution is open. Volumes are not the worry, Q2 sales rose 42.7 percent; debt and margin are. Iveco should enter the accounts only after the 30 October payment, so Q3 FY27 is its first quarter. Holders stay through 26 October; fresh money waits for the result and the refinancing plan. NSE resistance is Rs 440 to 450, the 25 and 23 September closes; no sourced support before the Rs 306.30 52-week low. My exit is a Q2 FY27 EBITDA margin below 10.9 percent, or equity above the €1 billion planned. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.