Vodafone Idea breaks Rs 12.50 support; SBI loan on hold

IDEA Vodafone Idea Limited has broken the Rs 12.50 support I set on 5 October, and the SBI-led funding that lifted the stock is still not released. Q1 FY27 numbers (consolidated, last reported): Revenue: Rs 11,689 crore, up 6% YoY Net loss: Rs 3,754 crore, including a Rs 1,611 crore exceptional gain; loss before it about Rs 5,360 crore EBITDA: Rs 5,034 crore against interest of Rs 5,120 crore Subscribers: the first net addition since the merger The loan is the stock’s main story. The company is seeking Rs 35,000 crore against a Rs 45,000 crore capex plan. SBI will not release its share until the other lenders sanction theirs, according to an Outlook Business report from 24 August. I found no later update. I found no cause for the stock’s fall in the sources I checked. Vodafone Idea [IDEA][***** traded at Rs 12.25 at 12:34 PM IST on 9 November on StockGro, down 1.4 percent from its previous close of Rs 12.42, and down 2.9 percent over a month. P/E 3.6; sector P/E near 21. My view: exit, not hold. This is a trade, not an investment. My 5 October line was a close below Rs 12.50, and StockGro’s last close of Rs 12.42, on Friday, is below it. The NSE close is not confirmed. Fresh money waits for two things: full sanction of the SBI-led loan by all lenders, and a close back above Rs 14.23, the 25 September close, after the Q2 FY27 result. What would change my mind: full sanction with a close above Rs 14.23 before results. Next trigger: Q2 FY27 results, date not announced; last year’s came on 10 November. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.