Lupin Ltd. Share Price

MACRO DATA--> UPDATE THAT BENEFIT THIS SECTORS STOCKS!

India’s foreign exchange reserves have witnessed another sharp decline. For the week ended September 25, 2026, India’s forex reserves fell by $18.34 billion to around $747.56 billion. This was the third consecutive weekly decline, with reserves falling by more than $38 billion over three weeks from the record high of around $785.71 billion reached earlier in September. But the bigger question for investors is: What does falling forex reserves mean for the Rupee and Indian stocks? Why Did Forex Reserves Fall? The biggest decline came from Foreign Currency Assets (FCAs). Foreign Currency Assets ↓ $15.57 billion to around $615.41 billion Gold reserves also declined by around $2.59 billion to approximately $108.70 billion. The fall comes amid pressure on the Indian Rupee, with the RBI intervening in the foreign exchange market to manage excessive currency volatility. ---->🇮🇳 What Does This Mean for the Rupee? The important transmission mechanism is: Forex Pressure → Rupee Pressure → USD/INR Moves Higher If the Rupee weakens against the US Dollar, companies that earn a significant portion of their revenue in dollars can benefit when those revenues are converted back into Rupees. This creates an important distinction: Weak Rupee = Negative for Importers --->IT AND PHARMA Sector Could Benefit

GLENMARK SUNPHARMA INFOSYS COFORGE PERSISTENT HCLTECH --->Bottom Line India still has a very large forex reserve cushion, but the recent decline highlights renewed pressure on the Rupee. The $18.34 billion weekly decline is important, but investors should not look at the reserve number in isolation. The bigger market signal is the interaction between: Rupee + Crude Oil + RBI Intervention + FII Flows + Global Dollar Strength

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Lupin receives tentative U.S. FDA approval

Lupin receives tentative U.S. FDA approval for apixaban oral suspension

Lupin Limited has received tentative approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for its New Drug Application for Apixaban Oral Suspension 1.25 mg/mL. Key highlights: The product is an oral liquid formulation of apixaban, an anticoagulant. It offers an alternative for adult patients requiring anticoagulation therapy who may have difficulty swallowing tablets. Upon final approval, the product will be manufactured at Lupin’s facility in Somerset, New Jersey, USA. Impact: Positive. The tentative FDA approval expands Lupin’s portfolio of differentiated medicines and offers an alternative administration option for patients. Final approval remains pending.

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LUPIN SHARES RISE AFTER NOMURA REAFFIRMS BUY RATING

Shares gained in morning trade on Thursday after Nomura retained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and maintained its target price at Rs 2,675. The brokerage said Lupin’s management remains confident of sustaining India business growth at 1.2–1.3 times the overall market growth over the medium term. The company also expects continued progress in complex generics, particularly in respiratory products, over the next three to five years, with key filings anticipated in FY27F. Nomura highlighted potential near-term upside from Lupin’s Apixaban 505(b)(2) opportunity. Management also expects double-digit growth in markets outside India and the US over the medium term. According to Nomura, Lupin expects to grow 20–30% faster than the broader Indian pharmaceutical market over the medium term. Cardiac, anti-diabetic and respiratory therapies, which together account for around 60% of sales, are expected to remain key growth drivers over the next five years. The company is focusing on deeper market penetration and improving field-force productivity to support growth. In the US, Nomura expects the current downturn to be short-lived, with revenues potentially surpassing FY26F levels within two years. However, near-term US revenue could decline sequentially due to increased competition in gJynarque (Tolvaptan), Lupin’s largest US product.

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Lupin Q1 FY27: Record Quarter, US Guided Lower, Biosimilar

Lupin Limited reported Q1 FY27 results for the June 2026 quarter on 6 August. Q1 FY27 numbers (consolidated): Revenue: Rs 8,277 crore, up 32% YoY, a 16th consecutive quarterly record; EBITDA Rs 2,464 crore, up 50%; margin 30% PAT: Rs 1,417 crore, up 16% YoY; EPS Rs 30.95; tax rate compressed PAT margin to 17.2% US: $366 million, up 43% YoY, 42% of global revenue; 6 ANDA approvals India: Rs 2,380 crore, up 13.9%; gross margin 74.6% Management guided US revenue to fall to $250 to 280 million per quarter as competition intensifies; Q1 was boosted by exclusivity and first-wave generics that normalise. Since results: USFDA approval for Modafinil (7 September); biosimilar target of $500 million over five years, Rs 500 to 700 crore capacity investment earmarked. Lupin [][***** shares closed at Rs 2,051.80 (15 Sep 2026, 03:58 PM IST), down 18 percent from the Rs 2,505 high, down 7.3 percent over the month. P/E 16.96; sector P/E 44.64; PEG 0.27. My view: the quarterly print is a record; the stock rightly sold the guidance. The Q1 US number ($366 million) will not repeat in Q2 or Q3; management said so. That makes the 30 percent margin also a peak-of-cycle US number; the 16x trailing is cheaper than it looks once the guided sequential decline is modelled. The structural story is real: biosimilars, GLP-1, India branded at 15 percent. The entry question is whether the US normalisation is already in the price at Rs 2,052. At PEG 0.27, the medium-term growth is not being paid for. Accumulate in the Rs 1,866 to 2,050 zone; Rs 2,180 to 2,250 the overhead resistance. Disclosure: Vijay Kumar Gupta, SEBI Registered Research Analyst, INH000020226, Vijay Gupta Advisory. SEBI registration and NISM certification do not guarantee performance or assure returns. Securities markets are subject to market risks. No holdings in the subject company.

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Lupin's fundamental momentum remains strong

Major positive triggers 1. Strong US franchise The US is Lupin's biggest growth engine, contributing about 42% of global sales in Q1. Lupin received 6 ANDA approvals and launched 3 products during the quarter. It now has 149 generic products in the US market. 2. New high-value launches Recent US approvals include Modafinil, Pitolisant and Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate, while Lupin also received approval and launched Sugammadex injection. These complex/high-value products can support US growth and margins. A particularly interesting opportunity is Sodium Sulfate/Magnesium Sulfate/Potassium Chloride tablets, where Lupin is eligible for 180-day generic exclusivity; the reference product had estimated US annual sales of $132.8 million. 3. India business remains healthy India grew 13.9%, with formulation sales up 15.1%. This provides a more stable domestic earnings base alongside the faster-growing US business. 4. Strong balance sheet Lupin's net-cash position gives it flexibility for R&D, capacity expansion, acquisitions and shareholder returns without excessive dependence on debt. 5. GLP-1 opportunity The Indian GLP-1 market is projected to expand from roughly ₹4,000 crore in FY27 to ₹15,700 crore by FY32. Lupin is among the pharma companies considered well positioned to participate in this market. 🔴 Risks US growth sustainability is the biggest factor to watch. A 43% YoY increase is excellent, but part of the growth comes from new launches/exclusivity and favourable product mix. As competition increases, price erosion can reduce margins.

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Lupin Targets $500 Mn Biosimilar Opportunity

is significantly stepping up its focus on biosimilars, targeting key global markets. The company expects biosimilar turnover to approach $500 million over the next five years, making the portfolio an important future growth engine. Portfolio and market launches: Lupin plans to bring biosimilars of Nivolumab, Dinuzumab and Pertuzumab to India, while Ranibizumab is lined up for launches across the US, Europe and Japan. Pegfilgrastim has already received USFDA approval, while Etanercept is being pursued through global partnerships. ₹500 Cr investment and capacity expansion: To support the biosimilar push, Lupin plans to invest around ₹500 crore in biosimilar manufacturing capacity, with total investment potentially rising to ₹700 crore. Existing microbial capacity of around 11,000 litres, along with 100 litres of mammalian capacity, is being expanded. Flexible commercialisation strategy: Rather than relying on a fixed model, Lupin plans to use a combination of partnerships, third-party distribution and its own sales force, depending on the product and market. It has already partnered with Sandoz and Biogaran for European distribution. US growth remains key: Lupin expects its India business to grow 25–30% CAGR above the market rate in FY27. In the US, some products face near-term pressure, including the generic version of Mirabegron, but new launches such as Apixaban are expected to support growth. Overall, Lupin sees around 10% US CAGR over the next five years. Funding and innovation ambitions: Lupin is exploring external funding for its oncology-focused Kaveli Therapeutics spin-off, while intending to remain the majority shareholder. The company believes its pipeline has substantial potential but acknowledges the associated development risks. Longer term, successful molecules could potentially develop into multi-billion-dollar businesses.

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