August 11 | Nifty Near 52-Week High, This Stock Near 52-Week Low | ITC

$ITC Here is one of the more striking divergences currently playing out on the Nifty 50. The index has recovered sharply from its April low of around 21,964 and is now trading above 24,500 — within approximately 8 per cent of its all-time high. Most large-cap stocks have participated in that recovery. ITC has not. The stock is trading at approximately Rs 283 — just 2.8 per cent above its 52-week low of Rs 275, even as the Nifty has gained over 11 per cent from its April bottom. The 52-week high stands at Rs 427, meaning ITC currently trades 33.7 per cent below the level it was at just 12 months ago. The reasons are well-documented. The Union Budget's steep excise duty hike on cigarettes is expected to cause volume declines of 5 to 10 per cent in FY27 — a direct hit to the company's most profitable business. Q1 FY27 net profit fell over 16 per cent year on year even as revenue hit a record Rs 29,523 crore. Agri business was hurt by West Asia conflict-related export disruptions. FMCG margins remain under pressure from input cost inflation. The bull case rests on three things: DII holding of 49.13 per cent reflecting deep institutional conviction in the long-term business; a PE of approximately 12x that represents a decade-low valuation for the company; and the possibility that the RBI's accommodative stance on inflation could eventually ease the excise duty pressure narrative. Whether that bull case plays out in the near term or takes several quarters to develop is the central debate around ITC right now. But with most of the Nifty moving higher and ITC stuck near its lows, the divergence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.