Nifty Weekly: Trendline Breaks, 50 SMA Now Key
Last week's base case failed to hold — the bulls could not reclaim the 50 SMA, and the breakdown below 24,040 played out in full. Nifty fell through decisively, dipping below 23,800 intraweek before settling at 23,897.70, down 1.15% for the week — its sharpest weekly decline in this consolidation stretch. More significant: the ascending trendline connecting the index's last four reaction lows, validated over several months, has now broken, a structural shift that adds real weight to this pullback. RSI fell sharply to 38.37 from 46.98, nearing oversold territory and confirming genuine selling pressure rather than a shallow retracement.
The 50 SMA at 24,204 is the level to watch first — until reclaimed on a closing basis it offers only weak resistance, with 23,606 the bears' initial objective. A close back above 24,204, then 24,380, would be the first genuine sign the breakdown is reversing.
Options data adds caution: Friday saw Call OI fall 39.11 L (unwinding) while Put OI surged 3.64 Cr — a pattern of protection-buying rather than resistance-defending. Max Pain for 08-Sep sits at 24,000, a wider-than-usual 102 points above Friday's close.
