SBI Projects 8% GDP Growth for Q1 FY27

India’s economic growth momentum is showing signs of strengthening, with

Research projecting real GDP growth of around 8% for the first quarter of FY27 (April–June 2026). The estimate is significantly above the Reserve Bank of India’s earlier projection of 7% for the quarter and would mark an acceleration from 6.8% growth recorded in Q1 FY26. SBI Research’s nowcasting model, which tracks 54 high-frequency economic indicators across agriculture, industry and services, found that 86% of the indicators accelerated during Q1 FY27, compared with 69% in the year-ago period. This points to broad-based economic momentum rather than growth being driven by a single sector. Domestic consumption and investment remain key growth drivers. Passenger vehicle sales rose 24.1% year-on-year in June, while consumer credit expanded 15.8%, two-wheeler registrations increased 18.7% and three-wheeler sales climbed 26.1%. Government capital expenditure also remained supportive, while services activity continued to provide strength to the economy. The stronger growth outlook comes despite global uncertainties and disruptions stemming from the West Asia crisis and energy-market volatility. SBI Research believes India’s resilient domestic demand, improving industrial activity, strong services performance and continued investment support are helping the economy withstand external headwinds. If realised, an 8% Q1 growth rate would reinforce India’s position among the fastest-growing major economies globally and provide a strong starting point for FY27. It could also support earnings across consumption, banking, infrastructure, automobiles, capital goods and other domestically oriented sectors.