India Cement Q2 FY26 Performance Analysis

The Indian cement sector is poised for significant year-on-year (YoY) profit growth in the second quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Q2 FY26), primarily supported by enhanced pricing realization and mitigated input costs. Industry estimates project a robust 50% YoY rise in sector EBITDA, driven by an anticipated 5-6% increase in cement prices and favorable fuel cost dynamics, albeit benefiting from a low comparative base. Despite the strong profit forecast, volume growth is expected to remain subdued at less than 5%. This softness is attributed to seasonal factors, including the heavy monsoon period, an early festive season, and logistical disruptions stemming from the September 22nd Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate revision. Sequentially, EBITDA per tonne is projected to decline by approximately ₹200 to land in the ₹880–900 range, a dip linked to customary seasonal cost increases and modest price corrections. Nonetheless, the overall margin performance remains structurally healthier YoY. Top Performers (Volume Growth): Large-cap companies Ultratech Cement and Ambuja Cements are anticipated to lead with 10–15% volume expansion, partially supported by mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Mid-cap firms JSW Cement and JK Cement are expected to report strong growth at 15% and 10%, respectively. Segmental Weakness: Shree Cement, Dalmia Bharat, and Nuvoco Vistas are projected to post sub-5% volume growth, while Ramco Cements may report flat to slightly negative figures. EBITDA/Tonne: Shree Cement is expected to register the highest EBITDA per tonne at approximately ₹1,200, leveraging its North India operations. Ultratech’s metric is projected to be just under ₹1,000. Post the recent GST rate reduction, the industry is expected to strategically pivot from a primary focus on pricing to prioritizing volume growth.