Ambuja Cements Shows Structural Weakness — Wave (C) / Downtrend Continuation Risk ⚠️

Multi-Signal Technical + Structural View (Weekly Chart) Elliott Wave Structure: After completing a strong impulsive up-move into the ₹680–700 zone, Ambuja appears to have topped out and entered a larger corrective phase. The current price action suggests: Completion of Wave (B) near ₹610–620 Ongoing Wave (C) / Wave (3) of a corrective downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows clearly visible This indicates the stock is not in an accumulation phase, but in a distribution → markdown cycle. Price Structure & Trend Damage: The stock has decisively broken: Prior swing support near ₹540–550 Rising trend structure from 2023 Recent pullbacks are being sold into, confirming that sellers are active at higher levels. Momentum Perspective (MACD Behaviour): Although MACD is not shown here, the price structure itself reflects bearish momentum characteristics — weak bounce attempts, shallow recoveries, and increasing downside follow-through. This typically aligns with negative MACD structure on higher timeframes. AVWAP / Cost Distribution Insight: Price is trading below the AVWAP from the prior major high, implying that: Average positional participants are in loss Any bounce toward ₹530–550 is likely to face supply pressure This keeps the risk skewed to the downside. Downside Projection: Based on the prior range breakdown and measured move logic, the structure opens room toward: ₹460–440 zone in the medium term This aligns with previous demand pockets and unfinished price structure on the chart Risk / Invalidation Level: The bearish structure remains valid as long as price stays below ₹560–570 on a closing basis. A sustained reclaim above this zone would be the first sign of trend repair.