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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

16th Dec · SEBI-Registered Analyst

🏗️ Ambuja Cements: Structural Accumulation Before the Next Expansion Leg

AMBUJACEM
Ambuja Cements is displaying a high-quality base-building structure, where price behavior suggests accumulation rather than distribution — a classic setup seen before trend continuation. 📐 Elliott Wave Structure The sharp fall from the highs completed a larger corrective Wave A–B–C. The first rounded base marked Wave 1 recovery from exhaustion lows. The current smaller cup-like structure represents Wave 2 (time correction) — shallow in depth, indicating strength. Such formations often precede Wave 3 expansion, which tends to be directional and strong. 👉 Multiple higher lows confirm the trend is transitioning from corrective to impulsive. 📊 Momentum & MACD Insight MACD shows bullish convergence during the recent pullback — momentum is stabilizing even as price moved sideways. This reflects lack of aggressive selling pressure, a key sign of institutional support. Momentum is positioned to turn positive with any decisive upside follow-through. 📍 AVWAP & Long-Term Support AVWAP from the major swing low continues to act as a firm demand anchor. Price is comfortably above long-term moving averages, highlighting structural bullish bias. The rising long-term average below price indicates trend support, not resistance. 🧠 Price Structure Read The stock is forming a rounded accumulation base after a volatile correction. Such bases signal: Supply absorption Reduced volatility Strong hands gradually taking control The upward curve on the right side reflects renewed buying interest, not short covering. 🧱 Fundamental Strength Ambuja benefits from: Strong balance sheet and operating efficiency Scale advantages in a capital-intensive sector Long-term infrastructure and housing demand tailwinds Cement stocks typically move ahead of earnings visibility, and structure suggests that phase may be starting.

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