Base Breakout with Multi-Signal Confirmation in a Fundamentally Strong Metal Major

Elliott Wave Structure (Higher-Timeframe) The sharp rally into early 2024 marks a Wave (1) impulse. The prolonged sideways/downward movement between ~₹430–₹600 forms a complex Wave (2) correction (expanded flat / rectangle). The recent strong weekly close above the range high signals the start of Wave (3). Wave (3) is typically the strongest and longest, which aligns with the vertical projection visible on the chart. 📈 Measured move projection from the base suggests a 35–40% upside, placing potential targets in the ₹880–920 zone if momentum sustains. 2. MACD Momentum & Divergence During the base formation, price made equal or lower lows while MACD made higher lows, indicating bullish momentum divergence. The recent breakout coincides with MACD bullish crossover above the zero line, confirming a trend-strengthening phase, not a late entry. This suggests momentum is expanding, supporting the Wave (3) thesis. 3. AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) Insight Anchoring AVWAP from the 2024 swing high, price has now reclaimed and closed above AVWAP on a weekly basis. This level (~₹650) should now act as strong demand / support on pullbacks. As long as price holds above AVWAP, the bullish structure remains intact. AVWAP reclaim + range breakout = institutional participation signal. 4. Fundamental Strength (Structural Support) The company exhibits high ROCE, reflecting efficient capital deployment. Consistent operating profit and cash-flow generation provide downside protection. Strong balance sheet and leadership position in its segment support long-term valuation expansion, making technical breakouts more reliable. This is a technical breakout backed by fundamentals, not speculative price action.