Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 13th Jan
💡 Base Formation After Deep Correction in a Fundamentally Sound IT Midcap
BSOFT
🔍 Technical Structure Analysis
1️⃣ Elliott Wave Structure
Birlasoft previously completed a strong impulsive advance (Wave 1), followed by an extended and sharp ABC corrective phase (Wave 2).
The decline lost momentum near the lower end of the highlighted range, after which price transitioned into a broad sideways structure, suggesting correction maturity.
Recent higher lows within the range point toward early Wave (3) base development, though confirmation will come only with a decisive range breakout.
2️⃣ MACD – Positive Divergence Emerging
While price revisited the lower end of the range multiple times, MACD failed to make new lows, indicating bullish momentum divergence.
This behavior reflects selling exhaustion and gradual accumulation by stronger hands.
The MACD histogram has begun contracting on down moves, a typical early signal before trend reversal.
3️⃣ AVWAP – Fair Value Zone Acting as Magnet
The anchored VWAP from the major breakdown area coincides closely with the mid-to-upper zone of the consolidation (~₹440–₹450).
Price is currently oscillating around this AVWAP, indicating a fair value equilibrium.
Sustained acceptance above this AVWAP band would signal trend resumption, while rejection keeps the stock range-bound.
🧠 Fundamental Strength Snapshot
Healthy ROCE: Demonstrates efficient execution despite a challenging IT spending environment.
Consistent Profit Generation: Stable margins and earnings visibility across cycles.
Strong Client Relationships: Repeat business supports revenue durability.
Debt-Light Balance Sheet: Provides flexibility for growth and protects downside risk.