Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 16th Jan
🔥 Breakout with Structure & Strength – PNB Aligns Across Timeframes
PNB
📊 Technical Structure (Chart-Based Evidence)
1️⃣ Elliott Wave Structure
The price action suggests completion of a rounded corrective Wave (2) between ₹115–118.
The recent impulsive breakout above ₹128 signals the beginning of Wave (3) — typically the strongest leg of the trend.
Wave (3) projection based on prior impulse length aligns with the ₹140–142 zone, which matches the marked measured move on the chart.
2️⃣ Momentum Confirmation – MACD
During the December correction, price retested lower levels but momentum held firm, indicating bullish hidden divergence.
The latest breakout candle confirms momentum expansion, not exhaustion — a key trait of Wave (3) moves.
3️⃣ AVWAP & Trend Support
Price is comfortably above rising AVWAP, which acted as a demand zone during consolidation.
The former resistance near ₹122–124 has now flipped into strong structural support.
As long as price sustains above AVWAP and the rising channel, trend bias remains decisively bullish.
🧠 Fundamental Strength (Why the Breakout Is Trustworthy)
Improving asset quality with declining NPAs supports long-term re-rating.
Consistent operating profit growth and better credit discipline strengthen earnings visibility.
Capital adequacy and balance sheet repair over recent years reduce downside risk during pullbacks.
PNB remains a key beneficiary of the ongoing banking cycle expansion.