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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

20th Dec · SEBI-Registered Analyst

🏦 CAN FIN HOMES – Structural Breakout with Multi-Signal Confirmation

CANFINHOME
This chart reflects a high-quality trend resumption setup after a long corrective phase, supported by structure, momentum, and fundamentals. 🧠 Elliott Wave Structure The prior up-move formed a clear impulse wave The highlighted rounded correction is a Wave-4 time correction (not price destruction) Current breakout above the range signals start of Wave-5 Wave-5 projections naturally extend beyond the prior high due to long consolidation duration 👉 This is a textbook impulse → correction → impulse continuation structure. 📈 Momentum Insight (MACD) During the rounded bottom, price made lower lows but momentum weakened → bullish divergence On the recent rally, MACD crossed into positive territory with expanding histogram Confirms that momentum has shifted decisively in favor of bulls 📐 AVWAP Analysis AVWAP from the prior major high acted as overhead resistance Price absorbed supply around this level multiple times Current weekly close above AVWAP indicates institutional acceptance and trend continuation AVWAP now turns into strong positional support. 🏗️ Fundamental Strength (Why This Matters) Consistent profit growth cycle aligned with housing demand Healthy ROCE for an HFC business model Conservative balance sheet relative to peers Strong franchise in affordable & mid-income housing finance This is not a speculative breakout — fundamentals support the chart. 🎯 Range Expansion & Upside Potential Range width ≈ ₹380 Breakout from ₹940 zone opens path toward ₹1,300+ over the medium term Clean price structure with no major supply zones in between 🛡️ Risk Framework Structural invalidation only below the breakout base As long as price holds above the prior range high, trend remains intact Any retest of the breakout zone is a buy-the-dip opportunity, not a weakness

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