Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 20th Dec
🏦 CAN FIN HOMES – Structural Breakout with Multi-Signal Confirmation
CANFINHOME
This chart reflects a high-quality trend resumption setup after a long corrective phase, supported by structure, momentum, and fundamentals.
🧠 Elliott Wave Structure
The prior up-move formed a clear impulse wave
The highlighted rounded correction is a Wave-4 time correction (not price destruction)
Current breakout above the range signals start of Wave-5
Wave-5 projections naturally extend beyond the prior high due to long consolidation duration
👉 This is a textbook impulse → correction → impulse continuation structure.
📈 Momentum Insight (MACD)
During the rounded bottom, price made lower lows but momentum weakened → bullish divergence
On the recent rally, MACD crossed into positive territory with expanding histogram
Confirms that momentum has shifted decisively in favor of bulls
📐 AVWAP Analysis
AVWAP from the prior major high acted as overhead resistance
Price absorbed supply around this level multiple times
Current weekly close above AVWAP indicates institutional acceptance and trend continuation
AVWAP now turns into strong positional support.
🏗️ Fundamental Strength (Why This Matters)
Consistent profit growth cycle aligned with housing demand
Healthy ROCE for an HFC business model
Conservative balance sheet relative to peers
Strong franchise in affordable & mid-income housing finance
This is not a speculative breakout — fundamentals support the chart.
🎯 Range Expansion & Upside Potential
Range width ≈ ₹380
Breakout from ₹940 zone opens path toward ₹1,300+ over the medium term
Clean price structure with no major supply zones in between
🛡️ Risk Framework
Structural invalidation only below the breakout base
As long as price holds above the prior range high, trend remains intact
Any retest of the breakout zone is a buy-the-dip opportunity, not a weakness