Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 10th Jul
CDSL: Trendline Breakout Signals the Next Leg of the Bull Market
CDSL
CDSL is approaching a major multi-month trendline breakout, with price reclaiming key resistance after a prolonged consolidation. The setup indicates that the correction may be ending and a fresh bullish phase could be unfolding.
Technical View
Elliott Wave Structure: After completing a corrective Wave-2/4 consolidation, the stock is attempting to begin a new impulsive advance. A decisive breakout above the falling trendline would strengthen the case for the next Wave-3/Wave-5 rally.
MACD Perspective: Momentum has steadily improved while price formed higher lows during the later stages of the correction, suggesting bullish momentum divergence. This increase in buying momentum supports the possibility of a sustained breakout.
AVWAP Support: Price has moved back above the Anchored VWAP, indicating that institutional positioning has shifted in favor of the bulls. AVWAP now acts as an important dynamic support, while the falling trendline represents the final technical hurdle.
Fundamental Strength
CDSL continues to enjoy strong long-term fundamentals:
Monopoly-like position in India's depository ecosystem with a highly scalable business model.
Asset-light operations generating strong cash flows and consistently high return ratios.
Healthy profit growth supported by increasing demat account additions and rising capital market participation.
Strong balance sheet with minimal debt, enabling sustained earnings compounding.
What the Chart Suggests
The convergence of:
Elliott Wave completion,
Improving MACD momentum,
Price reclaiming AVWAP,
And strong business fundamentals,
creates a compelling technical setup. A sustained weekly close above the falling trendline could confirm the breakout and open the door for a fresh medium-term uptrend. Holding above the breakout zone would reinforce the bullish structure, while the previous resistance is likely to act as a strong support on any pullback.