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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

19th May · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Channel Breakout with Multi-Signal Confirmation on a Fundamentally Strong Stock!

ARVIND
The monthly chart is showing a clean falling channel breakout, where price has finally moved above a prolonged corrective structure after months of consolidation. The breakout around the ₹480 zone suggests a potential shift from correction to trend continuation, with a measured upside potential of nearly 25–30% if momentum sustains. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the stock appears to have completed a corrective Wave-2/Wave-4 structure within the channel. The recent breakout candle may signal the beginning of a fresh Wave-3 impulsive move, which is often the strongest and most explosive phase of a trend cycle. The momentum structure also points toward a bullish MACD divergence, where price was making weaker structures inside the channel while momentum gradually improved underneath. This type of divergence frequently acts as an early clue that sellers are losing control before a major breakout emerges. Price is now reclaiming an important AVWAP zone, which can act as a strong institutional support level. Holding above this anchored level generally reflects accumulation and improves the probability of sustained upside continuation. The fundamental side further strengthens the setup: ✔ Healthy ROCE indicating efficient capital allocation ✔ Consistent profit growth and improving operational performance ✔ Diversified business presence with strong long-term growth potential When chart structure, Elliott Wave progression, MACD confirmation, AVWAP support, and business quality align together, they often create high-probability opportunities. Sustaining above the breakout zone with strong participation could trigger the next phase of trend expansion.

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