Cup-and-Handle Breakout Signals Fresh Impulse in a Fundamentally Resilient Metal Play

Elliott Wave Structure (Primary Trend) The rally into early 2024 represents a completed Wave (1). The extended, smooth corrective structure that followed forms a Wave (2) — visually appearing as a rounded cup, signaling accumulation rather than distribution. The recent sharp move above the rim of the cup confirms the start of Wave (3). Wave (3) breakouts from such bases are often fast and expansive, matching the vertical projection marked on the chart. 📊 Measured move from the base depth points toward a 50%+ upside potential, aligning with the ₹650–680 zone over the medium term if structure holds. 2. MACD Divergence & Momentum Expansion Throughout the basing phase, price trended sideways to marginally lower, while MACD formed higher lows, signaling bullish hidden divergence. Post-breakout, MACD has moved decisively above the zero line, confirming trend acceleration, not exhaustion. This indicates strength entering early in the impulse, consistent with Wave (3) behavior. 3. AVWAP Confirmation (Institutional Footprint) Anchoring AVWAP from the prior 2024 swing high, price has cleanly reclaimed and held above AVWAP. The breakout retest area near ₹410–420 aligns with AVWAP support, making it a high-confluence demand zone. Sustaining above AVWAP reinforces that smart money is positioned on the long side. 4. Fundamental Strength (Cycle-Aligned) The company benefits from strong operating leverage to metal price cycles. Healthy return ratios and improving margins support earnings visibility. Balance sheet stability allows the stock to participate fully in up-cycles, increasing the reliability of technical breakouts. Fundamentals and technicals are aligned in the same direction, reducing downside risk.