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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

22nd Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Cup & Breakout Structure in Bank of Maharashtra – Strong Continuation Signal

MAHABANK
Bank of Maharashtra is displaying a powerful structural breakout backed by both price action and improving momentum, indicating a potential continuation of the ongoing uptrend. From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the stock appears to have completed a larger Wave 1 impulse, followed by a well-rounded Wave 2 correction forming a cup-like structure. The recent breakout above the ₹70–₹72 resistance zone signals the likely start of Wave 3, which is typically the strongest and fastest leg in the cycle. On the momentum front, the price action suggests a bullish MACD alignment. During the formation of the cup, momentum cooled off gradually, but importantly, there was no aggressive downside follow-through. This kind of structure usually reflects accumulation, and the recent sharp bullish candle confirms momentum expansion. Looking at AVWAP, if anchored from the recent swing high near ₹75, the price has now cleanly reclaimed this level and is sustaining above it, indicating a shift from supply to demand. This zone now becomes a strong support base for further upside. The measured move projection on the chart indicates a potential ~40% upside, targeting the ₹100–₹105 zone, which aligns well with the depth of the cup formation and breakout range expansion. From a fundamental perspective, Bank of Maharashtra has been witnessing: Improvement in asset quality (declining NPAs), Better credit growth, Expanding net interest margins. This combination of technical breakout + improving fundamentals strengthens the probability of a sustained move rather than a short-lived rally. Conclusion The setup reflects a classic: Accumulation → Rounded Base → Breakout → Momentum Expansion As long as the price sustains above the ₹70 breakout zone, the structure favors continuation toward higher levels, with Wave 3 dynamics potentially driving a sharp upside move.

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