Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) ยท 4th Mar
๐ Cup & Handle Breakout Brewing in Chennai Petroleum โ Multi-Signal Confirmation on a Fundamentally Strong Stock!
CHENNPETRO
The weekly structure of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited is displaying a powerful long-term bullish setup with technical and fundamental alignment.
๐ Technical Structure Breakdown
๐ Elliott Wave Perspective
The stock completed a major corrective Wave II around the โน450โโน500 zone.
The rounding structure suggests accumulation and transition into Wave III, typically the strongest and fastest wave in an impulse cycle.
Current price action is attempting to reclaim the prior swing high near โน970โโน1,000 โ a classic Wave III breakout zone.
If sustained above this resistance, the structure projects a move toward โน1,200+ in the medium term.
๐ MACD Momentum Insight
On the weekly timeframe, MACD shows bullish divergence:
Price made a lower low during correction.
MACD histogram and signal line made higher lows.
This positive divergence indicated waning downside momentum before the recent rally.
The fresh bullish crossover supports trend continuation.
Momentum is expanding in favor of bulls.
๐ AVWAP Confluence
Anchored VWAP from the prior major top (~โน1,050 zone) is being reclaimed.
Price is sustaining above AVWAP, signaling:
Institutional accumulation
Shift from supply to demand control
AVWAP now acts as dynamic support near โน900โโน930.
๐ Fundamental Strength Adds Conviction
Chennai Petroleum stands out due to:
โ Strong ROCE, reflecting efficient capital deployment
โ Consistent profitability across cycles
โ Healthy balance sheet relative to sector peers
โ Beneficiary of refining margin expansion cycles
A technically strong structure backed by improving earnings visibility enhances probability of trend continuation.