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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

28th Mar ยท SEBI-Registered Analyst

๐Ÿš€ Falling Channel Reversal in a High-Growth Digital Play

AFFLE
This chart is showing a classic downtrend exhaustion setup, where price is attempting a reversal from a falling channel, supported by strong underlying fundamentals. ๐Ÿ“Š Technical Breakdown 1. Elliott Wave Structure The stock previously completed a strong impulsive uptrend (Wave 1โ€“5). The ongoing decline fits a corrective ABC pattern, with the falling channel representing Wave C. Recent sharp bounce from the lower channel suggests Wave C completion and the start of a new impulsive cycle (Wave 1 up). 2. MACD Divergence (Early Bullish Signal) Price made lower lows toward the end of the channel. Momentum likely formed higher lows, indicating a bullish divergence. This is a classic sign of trend exhaustion and reversal buildup. 3. AVWAP / Channel Resistance (~โ‚น1450โ€“โ‚น1500) Price is now approaching the upper boundary of the falling channel, which aligns with a key AVWAP resistance zone. ๐Ÿ‘‰ Key trigger: Sustained breakout above โ‚น1500 = trend reversal confirmation This level can flip into strong support ๐Ÿ“ˆ Price Structure Insight Trend: Downtrend (inside channel) Current phase: Strong bounce from demand zone Behavior: Sharp bullish candle near support ๐Ÿ‘‰ This indicates potential accumulation at lower levels ๐Ÿ’ฐ Fundamental Strength The technical setup is backed by a high-quality business: โœ… Leader in digital advertising & AI-driven marketing tech โœ… Asset-light, high ROCE business model โœ… Strong revenue growth visibility โœ… Beneficiary of increasing digital ad spends globally ๐Ÿ”ฅ What This Means If the stock: Breaks above โ‚น1500 convincingly And sustains with momentum ๐Ÿ‘‰ It can trigger a strong move toward โ‚น1650โ€“โ‚น1750+ levels โš ๏ธ Risk Note Failure at channel resistance may continue downtrend Growth stocks can show sharp volatility ๐Ÿง  Simple Summary Structure: Corrective phase ending Pattern: Falling channel reversal Momentum: Bullish divergence Level: โ‚น1500 = breakout trigger Fundamentals: High-growth digital leader

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