Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) Β· 3rd Feb
Gokaldas Exports: Long-Term AVWAP Test β Make-or-Break Zone π
GOKEX
Big Picture Structure:
Gokaldas delivered a massive multi-year impulsive rally from 2020 to 2024, clearly a strong primary uptrend. However, after peaking near the βΉ1,100β1,200 zone, price entered a sharp corrective phase, wiping out momentum quickly β a classic post-euphoria cleanup.
Elliott Wave Context:
The entire rally from 2020 lows appears to be a complete 5-wave impulsive structure.
π The ongoing fall fits well with a higher-degree corrective Wave AβBβC, where:
Wave A: Sharp fall from the top
Wave B: Volatile retracement and distribution
Wave C: Now testing long-term value
Importantly, Wave C often terminates near long-term VWAP / AVWAP zones.
AVWAP (From 2020 Lows):
This is the most powerful signal on the chart.
Price is now exactly at the AVWAP drawn from 2020 accumulation levels (~βΉ520β540).
π This represents:
Institutional cost basis
Fair value of the entire bull cycle
A zone where strong hands typically re-enter if the trend is to survive
Price Behaviour & Momentum (MACD Lens):
Momentum clearly peaked well before price highs, suggesting bearish divergence on higher timeframes. The current strong green candle after a deep fall hints at early stabilization, but confirmation is still pending.