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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

18th Dec · SEBI-Registered Analyst

🧱 India Cements: Range Expansion After Prolonged Accumulation

INDIACEM
India Cements is displaying a textbook volatility contraction → expansion setup, where price has finally resolved a long consolidation with strength — often the start of a directional move, not the end. 📐 Elliott Wave Structure The stock spent several weeks in a complex corrective structure (Wave 4), marked by sideways movement inside a broad rectangle. This correction was time-based, not price-destructive — a bullish sign. The recent strong breakout candle signals the beginning of Wave 5, which typically unfolds as a sharp and fast impulse. Projected wave symmetry suggests the current move is still in the early leg of the impulse, leaving room for continuation. 📊 MACD Momentum Insight During the range-bound phase, MACD flattened while price made no meaningful lower lows — indicating bearish momentum exhaustion. On the breakout, MACD turns up decisively, confirming fresh bullish momentum, not a false breakout. This transition from low momentum to expansion aligns well with early impulsive wave behavior. 📍 AVWAP & Value Acceptance AVWAP anchored near the consolidation midpoint acted as a mean reversion magnet throughout the range. The decisive move above the upper value zone confirms acceptance above fair value, a key signal of institutional participation. As long as price holds above the breakout area, AVWAP should now act as dynamic support. 🧠 Price Structure & Supply Dynamics The rectangle represented absorption of supply, where sellers were consistently met with demand. The breakout candle shows range expansion with authority, reducing the probability of immediate pullback. Such structures typically resolve into measured moves equal to the range height, which aligns with the projected upside zone. 🏗️ Fundamental Strength India Cements benefits from: Stable demand visibility linked to infrastructure and housing Improving operational efficiency cycles Asset-backed balance sheet strength

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