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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

29th Jan · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Jindal Steel Breaks Into Wave (5) — Structural & Momentum Alignment ⚙️📈

JINDALSTEL
Technical + Fundamental View (Weekly Chart) Elliott Wave Structure: The larger structure clearly reflects an impulsive advance. Wave (3) topped out around the prior highs, followed by a broad Wave (4) corrective phase that unfolded as a complex, time-consuming correction rather than a deep price cut. The recent decisive breakout above the Wave (4) boundary confirms the start of Wave (5). Based on wave symmetry and the measured projection on the chart, the structure opens up upside potential toward the ₹1,450–1,520 zone. MACD Momentum Insight: During the entire Wave (4) correction, price made lower highs while MACD refused to make corresponding lower lows, forming a bullish momentum divergence. The fresh upside expansion in MACD post-breakout confirms that momentum has shifted back in favor of trend continuation. AVWAP Confirmation: Price is trading firmly above the AVWAP anchored from the Wave (3) high, which had acted as a supply ceiling during the correction. This AVWAP reclaim and sustained acceptance above it signals institutional re-entry and validates the breakout as structural rather than speculative. Structure & Trend Quality: The breakout is occurring with higher lows, rising slope support, and strong candle structure, suggesting controlled accumulation. Such Wave (5) breakouts after long consolidations typically lead to orderly, trending moves instead of sharp retracements. Fundamental Strength: Jindal Steel remains fundamentally strong, supported by: Consistently healthy ROCE and operating margins Deleveraging and improved balance-sheet strength Strong demand visibility from infrastructure and industrial cycles Overall View: The convergence of Wave (5) activation, bullish MACD divergence, AVWAP support flip, and solid fundamentals places Jindal Steel in a high-probability trend continuation phase on the weekly timeframe. As long as price holds above the breakout zone, the structure favors expansion rather than consolidation.

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