Long-Term Trend Breakdown: Structural Weakness Emerging Despite Core Business Strength

Elliott Wave Structure: The multi-year uptrend appears to have completed a full 5-wave impulsive cycle, with the peak formed in the 880–920 zone. Since then, price action reflects a clear ABC corrective structure. The ongoing decline suggests Wave C is unfolding, which is typically the most destructive leg of a correction, explaining the persistent lower lows. MACD Divergence: On the weekly timeframe, the rally into the highs showed bearish MACD divergence, where momentum failed to confirm the final price expansion. This loss of momentum marked the transition from accumulation to distribution, now playing out as a prolonged correction. AVWAP / Mean Value Zone: Price has decisively moved below the long-term AVWAP / mean price zone, which earlier acted as a strong institutional support area. This breakdown indicates that the stock is trading below its fair value reference, and AVWAP is now acting as overhead resistance on pullbacks. Moving Average Structure: The stock is trading below all key moving averages, with the faster averages turning down sharply. This alignment confirms a primary trend reversal, not just a temporary pullback within an uptrend. Fundamental Strength (Big-Picture Context): Fundamentally, the business retains strategic importance, strong asset backing, and long-term relevance in logistics and infrastructure. However, return ratios have remained moderate, and the market is clearly repricing expectations, leading to time and price correction despite stable operations.