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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

21st Dec Β· SEBI-Registered Analyst

πŸ’» LTIMindtree (Monthly) – Post-Merger Base β†’ Wave-5 Style Expansion Setup

LTIM
🧠 Structural Read (Big Picture) πŸ”Ή Impulse Phase (2020–2021) Strong 5-wave impulse from ~β‚Ή2,000 to ~β‚Ή7,700 Classic IT bull-cycle leader move Fibonacci expansion levels perfectly respected (0.5–0.786 zone marked by you) πŸ”Ή Distribution β†’ Reset (2022–2024) Sharp post-peak rejection from 0.786 Followed by: Long rectangular base (β‚Ή4,000 – β‚Ή6,500) Time correction > price correction This is not a top, this is absorption after excess optimism Merger complexity (LTI + Mindtree) is fully digested by the market here. πŸ“ Why This Is a High-Quality Base Key positives: πŸ“¦ Range compression for ~30+ months πŸ“‰ Volatility contraction (monthly bodies shrinking) πŸ“ˆ 200-DMA (purple) flattening & curling up Multiple failed breakdowns below β‚Ή4,500 β†’ strong demand This is how institutions re-accumulate quietly. πŸ”‘ Trigger Zone (Most Important Level) β‚Ή6,500–6,600 monthly close This is: Range high Supply zone from 2021–22 Psychological merger resistance Once this level is accepted (not just spiked) β†’ structure changes completely. πŸš€ Upside Projection (Conservative, Not Aggressive) Using range expansion logic: Range height β‰ˆ β‚Ή2,500 Breakout above β‚Ή6,500 β†’ β‚Ή9,000–9,300 zone Your marked projection (~β‚Ή9,200) is technically spot-on. This would be a Wave-5 type expansion, not Wave-3 mania β†’ steady but powerful. πŸ›‘οΈ Risk Management (Positional View) Structure valid as long as: β‚Ή4,800–4,900 holds on monthly Structural failure only below: β‚Ή4,300 (very low probability unless IT index breaks) This gives excellent risk:reward for long-term capital.

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