π§ Structural Read (Big Picture)
πΉ Impulse Phase (2020β2021)
Strong 5-wave impulse from ~βΉ2,000 to ~βΉ7,700
Classic IT bull-cycle leader move
Fibonacci expansion levels perfectly respected (0.5β0.786 zone marked by you)
πΉ Distribution β Reset (2022β2024)
Sharp post-peak rejection from 0.786
Followed by:
Long rectangular base (βΉ4,000 β βΉ6,500)
Time correction > price correction
This is not a top, this is absorption after excess optimism
Merger complexity (LTI + Mindtree) is fully digested by the market here.
π Why This Is a High-Quality Base
Key positives:
π¦ Range compression for ~30+ months
π Volatility contraction (monthly bodies shrinking)
π 200-DMA (purple) flattening & curling up
Multiple failed breakdowns below βΉ4,500 β strong demand
This is how institutions re-accumulate quietly.
π Trigger Zone (Most Important Level)
βΉ6,500β6,600 monthly close
This is:
Range high
Supply zone from 2021β22
Psychological merger resistance
Once this level is accepted (not just spiked) β structure changes completely.
π Upside Projection (Conservative, Not Aggressive)
Using range expansion logic:
Range height β βΉ2,500
Breakout above βΉ6,500 β βΉ9,000β9,300 zone
Your marked projection (~βΉ9,200) is technically spot-on.
This would be a Wave-5 type expansion, not Wave-3 mania β steady but powerful.
π‘οΈ Risk Management (Positional View)
Structure valid as long as:
βΉ4,800β4,900 holds on monthly
Structural failure only below:
βΉ4,300 (very low probability unless IT index breaks)
This gives excellent risk:reward for long-term capital.