Lupin – High-Probability Breakout Setup with Multi-Signal Alignment!

1. Elliott Wave Structure Lupin’s price action over the last year resembles a Wave 4 contracting triangle, where price continuously compressed between a flat support (~₹1,900) and a descending resistance. The recent breakout attempt indicates the start of a fresh Wave 5 expansion, typically the trend-continuation leg after consolidation. 2. MACD Divergence & Momentum Weekly MACD shows a bullish crossover after a prolonged sideways phase. More importantly, the indicator formed a higher low, while price remained flat near support — a clear bullish divergence indicating selling exhaustion and renewed momentum for the next impulsive leg. 3. AVWAP as a Dynamic Pivot The AVWAP drawn from the last major peak sits just above the triangle resistance. Price pushing through both the trendline and AVWAP zone confirms that the institutional cost curve is flipping bullish. Sustaining above ₹2,020–₹2,050 keeps the breakout healthy. 4. Fundamental Strength Lupin has shown strong improvement in operational efficiency, margin expansion, and better product mix across key geographies. Steady growth in the US generics segment and consistent ROCE recovery provides fundamental backing for a medium-term uptrend. The company remains financially resilient with improving profitability cycles. Conclusion With a clean Elliott Wave breakout, bullish MACD divergence, AVWAP reclaim, and solid fundamentals, Lupin is entering a high-conviction breakout zone. A decisive weekly close above the descending trendline increases the probability of a ~20% upside expansion in the coming months.