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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

5th Feb Β· SEBI-Registered Analyst

Lupin: Large Weekly Cup Breakout + Fresh Expansion Phase πŸ’ŠπŸ“ˆ

LUPIN
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural Analysis (Weekly Timeframe) Primary Structure (Long-Term Price Action): Lupin has formed a well-defined multi-month Cup pattern between ~β‚Ή2,225 (rim) and ~β‚Ή1,850 (base). The rounded correction reflects institutional absorption and time correction, not panic selling β€” a classic base after a strong prior uptrend. Elliott Wave Perspective: The sharp rally into mid-2024 aligns with a higher-degree Wave 3 The long sideways-to-down rounded structure fits a Wave 4 complex correction The recent decisive weekly close above β‚Ή2,220–2,230 signals the start of Wave 5, typically the final but powerful trend extension Momentum Behavior (MACD Context): During the entire Cup formation, momentum stayed muted while price digested gains β€” a classic momentum reset. Breakouts after such compressions usually trigger fresh momentum expansion, not exhaustion. Measured Move Projection: Cup depth β‰ˆ β‚Ή375 Projected from breakout level gives a medium-term target near β‚Ή2,600, matching the marked projection on the chart. Key Levels to Track: Weekly breakout support: β‚Ή2,200–2,230 Structure invalidation: Sustained weekly close below β‚Ή2,100 Upside objective: β‚Ή2,550–2,600 zone Trade Psychology Insight: Breakouts on weekly charts often look slow initially. Shallow pullbacks or sideways candles above the rim are signs of strength, not weakness. The real move usually unfolds once supply fully dries up. Overall View: Lupin is transitioning from a long consolidation phase into a fresh impulsive leg on the weekly timeframe. The Cup completion, higher-degree Wave 5 setup, and clean acceptance above resistance point toward a positional trend continuation, suitable for investors and swing traders with patience. Big bases don’t break often β€” but when they do, they tend to run longer than expected πŸš€πŸ“Š

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