Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) Β· 5th Feb
Lupin: Large Weekly Cup Breakout + Fresh Expansion Phase ππ
LUPIN
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural Analysis (Weekly Timeframe)
Primary Structure (Long-Term Price Action):
Lupin has formed a well-defined multi-month Cup pattern between ~βΉ2,225 (rim) and ~βΉ1,850 (base). The rounded correction reflects institutional absorption and time correction, not panic selling β a classic base after a strong prior uptrend.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
The sharp rally into mid-2024 aligns with a higher-degree Wave 3
The long sideways-to-down rounded structure fits a Wave 4 complex correction
The recent decisive weekly close above βΉ2,220β2,230 signals the start of Wave 5, typically the final but powerful trend extension
Momentum Behavior (MACD Context):
During the entire Cup formation, momentum stayed muted while price digested gains β a classic momentum reset. Breakouts after such compressions usually trigger fresh momentum expansion, not exhaustion.
Measured Move Projection:
Cup depth β βΉ375
Projected from breakout level gives a medium-term target near βΉ2,600, matching the marked projection on the chart.
Key Levels to Track:
Weekly breakout support: βΉ2,200β2,230
Structure invalidation: Sustained weekly close below βΉ2,100
Upside objective: βΉ2,550β2,600 zone
Trade Psychology Insight:
Breakouts on weekly charts often look slow initially. Shallow pullbacks or sideways candles above the rim are signs of strength, not weakness. The real move usually unfolds once supply fully dries up.
Overall View:
Lupin is transitioning from a long consolidation phase into a fresh impulsive leg on the weekly timeframe. The Cup completion, higher-degree Wave 5 setup, and clean acceptance above resistance point toward a positional trend continuation, suitable for investors and swing traders with patience.
Big bases donβt break often β but when they do, they tend to run longer than expected ππ