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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

1st Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Multi-Signal Breakout in a Structurally Strong Metal Stock

NATIONALUM
The chart reflects a well-defined bullish structure with price recently breaking out of a consolidation zone near ₹390–₹400, indicating strength backed by multiple confirmations. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the stock appears to have completed a corrective Wave 4 consolidation within the ₹340–₹390 range. The recent strong bullish candle suggests the beginning of Wave 5, which typically carries momentum-driven upside. The prior impulsive move (Wave 3) was sharp, and the current breakout aligns with a continuation pattern rather than exhaustion. Looking at momentum, there is a likely bullish MACD crossover after a shallow correction phase. The histogram contraction during consolidation followed by expansion supports the idea of renewed bullish momentum, signaling that buyers are regaining control. In terms of AVWAP (Anchored VWAP), if anchored from the recent swing high (around late January), price has reclaimed and sustained above AVWAP levels. This indicates that the average participant is now in profit, often acting as a strong dynamic support zone near ₹370–₹380. The breakout above ₹400 further strengthens this shift in sentiment. On the fundamental side, the company stands out with: Consistently strong ROCE, indicating efficient capital utilization Stable profit growth, especially benefiting from favorable metal cycles A relatively healthy balance sheet compared to peers in the sector Conclusion: The confluence of Elliott Wave continuation, bullish momentum shift, and AVWAP support, combined with solid fundamentals, suggests a high-probability trend continuation. The immediate structure supports a potential move towards the ₹450–₹460 zone in the near term, provided the price sustains above the ₹380 support base.

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