Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 16th Jan
🔥 Multi-Signal Confirmation on a Fundamentally Strong Metal Leader – Tata Steel
TATASTEEL
📊 Technical Structure (What the Chart is Telling Us)
1️⃣ Elliott Wave Perspective
The stock appears to have completed a corrective Wave (2) around the ₹160–165 zone.
The recent higher low and strong impulsive candles suggest the start of Wave (3), which is typically the strongest and fastest wave.
Breakout above the prior swing resistance near ₹185–186 confirms bullish continuation structure.
Projected Wave (3) extension aligns with the ₹200–205 zone, matching the marked measured move on the chart.
2️⃣ Momentum Check – MACD
During the December lows, price made a lower low, but momentum did not — indicating a bullish MACD divergence.
Post divergence, MACD has crossed into positive territory, supporting trend acceleration rather than a pullback rally.
3️⃣ AVWAP & Dynamic Support
Price is trading above rising AVWAP, which is now acting as strong demand support.
Previous supply zone around ₹175–178 has flipped into a support base, increasing the probability of sustained upside.
As long as price holds above AVWAP and the rising channel, bulls remain in control.
🧠 Fundamental Strength (Why the Trend Has Backing)
Strong ROCE indicates efficient capital usage in a cyclical sector.
Consistent operating profit growth despite volatility in global steel prices reflects cost discipline.
Balance sheet has improved materially over recent years, reducing downside risk during corrections.
Tata Steel remains structurally strong within the metal space, making it suitable for positional and swing-based participation.