Muthoot Finance Ltd

Major Breakdown After Distribution – 225 EMA in Sight? Timeframe: Daily CMP: ₹3,375 Structure Bias: Bearish continuation 📉 Price Structure – Support Lost Key Observations: • Multiple rejections near ₹4,100–₹4,150 • Lower high formation • Sharp breakdown below ₹3,800 • Now trading below ₹3,415 horizontal support ₹3,415 was a key demand zone. Now acting as resistance. Structure has shifted to lower highs + lower lows. 🌊 Elliott Wave View Probable count: Wave (1): ₹3,200 → ₹4,150 Wave (2): Corrective phase Current decline looks impulsive — likely Wave A. If this is A: ➡ Bounce toward ₹3,550–₹3,650 (Wave B) ➡ Then Wave C toward ₹3,100–₹3,000 Wave equality projection aligns with: 🎯 ₹3,100–₹3,050 zone Which matches the 225 EMA region. 📊 EMA & Momentum • Price below 26 EMA • 26 EMA crossed below 52 EMA (bearish cross) • Selling pressure expanding 225 EMA at ₹3,130 acting as next magnet. Until price reclaims ₹3,650, rallies likely sold. 📌 AVWAP Logic Anchoring from ₹4,150 swing high: Price consistently below anchored VWAP. No institutional accumulation signs yet. Distribution confirmed above ₹3,800. 🎯 Key Levels Resistance: ₹3,415 ₹3,650 Support: ₹3,250 ₹3,130 (225 EMA) ₹3,000 psychological Break below ₹3,350 can accelerate toward ₹3,150. 📊 Fundamental Angle Gold loan NBFC: • Sensitive to gold price fluctuations • High NIM business • Regulatory exposure risk If gold stabilizes but stock corrects → pure technical unwind. Current structure suggests mean reversion toward long-term average. 🧠 Trade Scenarios Bearish Continuation Below ₹3,350 Target ₹3,150–₹3,050 Stop ₹3,650 Relief Bounce Strong close above ₹3,650 Target ₹3,800 📌 Professional Take After parabolic move → distribution → breakdown, price usually revisits 225 EMA. ₹3,100 zone is logical downside magnet.