Multi-Signal Technical + Structural Analysis (Weekly Timeframe)
Primary Structure Shift:
OFSS completed a parabolic impulsive move in 2024, followed by sharp mean reversion. What’s important is not the fall itself, but what happened after — price failed to reclaim previous highs and instead formed a lower high distribution range between ~₹8,500–9,800.
Elliott Wave Structure:
The vertical rally into 2024 marks a terminal Wave (5) at a higher degree
The sharp fall thereafter is Wave (A) of a larger corrective phase
The sideways-to-up consolidation near ₹9,000 is a weak Wave (B) — overlapping, low momentum, and volume-dry
The recent breakdown below ₹7,300–7,200 signals the start of Wave (C), typically fast and emotionally painful
Key Level Breakdown (High Conviction Signal):
₹7,200 was a major demand pivot + base breakout level from early 2024
A weekly close below this level invalidates the prior bullish structure
Once such levels break, they tend to flip into strong supply
Price Behaviour Insight:
Notice how:
Pullbacks are sharp
Rallies are slow and overlapping
This is classic distribution → markdown behaviour, where smart money exits quietly while retail hopes for a bounce.
Volume Clue:
The breakdown candle is accompanied by rising volume, confirming acceptance lower, not a stop-hunt.
Downside Projections:
Immediate zone: ₹6,200–6,400 (prior consolidation + 38–50% retrace of entire 2024 rally)
Deeper corrective target: ₹5,500–5,800, aligning with the projected Wave (C) termination and visible on the chart arrow
Risk & Invalidation Levels:
Near-term resistance: ₹7,300–7,500 (now supply)
Trend invalidation: Sustained weekly close back above ₹8,000
As long as price remains below ₹7,300, bears remain in control