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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

6th Feb · SEBI-Registered Analyst

OFSS (Oracle Financial Services): Distribution Complete — Breakdown Signals Trend Reversal ⚠️📉

OFSS
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural Analysis (Weekly Timeframe) Primary Structure Shift: OFSS completed a parabolic impulsive move in 2024, followed by sharp mean reversion. What’s important is not the fall itself, but what happened after — price failed to reclaim previous highs and instead formed a lower high distribution range between ~₹8,500–9,800. Elliott Wave Structure: The vertical rally into 2024 marks a terminal Wave (5) at a higher degree The sharp fall thereafter is Wave (A) of a larger corrective phase The sideways-to-up consolidation near ₹9,000 is a weak Wave (B) — overlapping, low momentum, and volume-dry The recent breakdown below ₹7,300–7,200 signals the start of Wave (C), typically fast and emotionally painful Key Level Breakdown (High Conviction Signal): ₹7,200 was a major demand pivot + base breakout level from early 2024 A weekly close below this level invalidates the prior bullish structure Once such levels break, they tend to flip into strong supply Price Behaviour Insight: Notice how: Pullbacks are sharp Rallies are slow and overlapping This is classic distribution → markdown behaviour, where smart money exits quietly while retail hopes for a bounce. Volume Clue: The breakdown candle is accompanied by rising volume, confirming acceptance lower, not a stop-hunt. Downside Projections: Immediate zone: ₹6,200–6,400 (prior consolidation + 38–50% retrace of entire 2024 rally) Deeper corrective target: ₹5,500–5,800, aligning with the projected Wave (C) termination and visible on the chart arrow Risk & Invalidation Levels: Near-term resistance: ₹7,300–7,500 (now supply) Trend invalidation: Sustained weekly close back above ₹8,000 As long as price remains below ₹7,300, bears remain in control

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