ONGC Breaks Out After Long Base — Higher-Timeframe Bullish Alignment ⚡

Technical + Fundamental View (Weekly Chart) Elliott Wave Structure: ONGC appears to have completed a sharp Wave (3) decline followed by an extended Wave (4) time-wise consolidation between ₹230–255. The recent strong weekly breakout above the range suggests the early phase of Wave (5) is underway. Wave (5) typically delivers steady, directional upside rather than volatile swings, aligning with the measured move projection toward the ₹290–300 zone. MACD Momentum Insight: Throughout the sideways base, price revisited similar lows while MACD formed higher lows, signaling a clear bullish divergence. The breakout candle coincides with MACD turning upward and expanding, indicating that momentum is now confirming the price breakout. AVWAP Confirmation: Price has decisively reclaimed the AVWAP anchored from the previous major distribution zone, which had capped rallies for several months. This reclaim and sustained close above AVWAP indicates a shift from supply dominance to demand control, with AVWAP now acting as a key support region. Structure & Price Behavior: The breakout comes after a well-defined rectangular accumulation, suggesting institutional absorption rather than speculative buying. Such bases often lead to measured, reliable follow-through moves rather than false breakouts. Fundamental Strength: ONGC remains fundamentally robust, supported by: Strong balance sheet and cash-generation capability Healthy return ratios (consistently strong ROCE) Strategic positioning in India’s energy security with stable long-term earnings visibility