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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

4th Feb · SEBI-Registered Analyst

PFC: Long-Term Trend Intact, Compression Phase Near Support ⚡📊

PFC
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural View (Weekly Chart) Primary Trend Context: PFC has delivered a massive secular uptrend from sub-₹100 levels to ~₹560 — a clear institutional-led move. What we’re seeing now is not trend reversal, but a post-euphoria digestion phase. Structure & Trendline Logic: The stock has been correcting within a descending trendline, which typically represents controlled distribution + time correction rather than panic selling. Importantly, price is now approaching the apex, where expansion usually follows. Elliott Wave Framework: The rally into mid-2024 marks a completed Wave 3 (extended) The entire phase thereafter looks like a Wave 4 correction — complex, overlapping, and time-consuming Wave 4 corrections often respect higher-degree moving averages, which is happening here AVWAP / Long-Term Mean Support: The stock has rebounded cleanly from the long-term rising average (~₹330–340). This zone acts as a value anchor for institutions, suggesting demand absorption, not capitulation. Momentum Insight (MACD Logic): Despite price correcting for months, momentum has been flattening, not accelerating downward — a classic loss of bearish momentum, often seen before trend resumption. Key Levels to Watch: Major demand zone: ₹330–350 Range resistance: ₹420–430 Trend breakout: Sustained weekly close above the descending trendline (~₹430–440) Upside projection post-breakout: ₹500 → ₹560 Risk Perspective: A weekly close below ₹325 would question the Wave-4 thesis. As long as that holds, the structure favors base-building before the next directional move. Overall View: PFC is compressing after a historic rally, resting on long-term institutional support. These phases test patience, not conviction. A trendline breakout with volume would likely mark the start of the next impulsive leg.

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