Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) · 4th Feb
PFC: Long-Term Trend Intact, Compression Phase Near Support ⚡📊
PFC
Multi-Signal Technical + Structural View (Weekly Chart)
Primary Trend Context:
PFC has delivered a massive secular uptrend from sub-₹100 levels to ~₹560 — a clear institutional-led move. What we’re seeing now is not trend reversal, but a post-euphoria digestion phase.
Structure & Trendline Logic:
The stock has been correcting within a descending trendline, which typically represents controlled distribution + time correction rather than panic selling. Importantly, price is now approaching the apex, where expansion usually follows.
Elliott Wave Framework:
The rally into mid-2024 marks a completed Wave 3 (extended)
The entire phase thereafter looks like a Wave 4 correction — complex, overlapping, and time-consuming
Wave 4 corrections often respect higher-degree moving averages, which is happening here
AVWAP / Long-Term Mean Support:
The stock has rebounded cleanly from the long-term rising average (~₹330–340). This zone acts as a value anchor for institutions, suggesting demand absorption, not capitulation.
Momentum Insight (MACD Logic):
Despite price correcting for months, momentum has been flattening, not accelerating downward — a classic loss of bearish momentum, often seen before trend resumption.
Key Levels to Watch:
Major demand zone: ₹330–350
Range resistance: ₹420–430
Trend breakout: Sustained weekly close above the descending trendline (~₹430–440)
Upside projection post-breakout: ₹500 → ₹560
Risk Perspective:
A weekly close below ₹325 would question the Wave-4 thesis. As long as that holds, the structure favors base-building before the next directional move.
Overall View:
PFC is compressing after a historic rally, resting on long-term institutional support. These phases test patience, not conviction. A trendline breakout with volume would likely mark the start of the next impulsive leg.