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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

30th May 2025 · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Post-Wave 5 Correction Over? Cummins India Readies for Next Leg!

CUMMINSIND
📊 Technical Analysis: Cummins India appears to have completed a classic 5-wave Elliott pattern, followed by a corrective phase. The recent breakout suggests a trend resumption may be underway. Elliott Wave Count: The stock completed its impulsive structure with Wave 5 peaking near ₹4,200. A multi-month correction followed, which now seems to have bottomed. Price recently broke out above the horizontal resistance (~₹3,100), signaling the end of correction and start of a new impulse or nested wave structure. AVWAP Levels: The price has remained well-supported by the AVWAP from Wave 4, which provided a base near ₹2,487. This level has acted as a reliable demand zone through the consolidation. MACD Signal: While not directly shown, a likely MACD bullish crossover is in place given the strong move and breakout candle, confirming renewed buying momentum. 💼 Fundamental Strength: Market Leadership: Cummins is a global leader in power and engine solutions with a strong footprint in India and overseas markets. Consistent Profit Growth: Over the past few years, the company has delivered steady revenue and margin expansion, driven by capacity increases and operational efficiency. Strong Balance Sheet: Cummins maintains a robust cash position with minimal debt, allowing for both growth and resilience during downturns. High ROCE & Dividend Payouts: Returns on capital employed are consistently strong, and shareholders benefit from regular dividends, underlining fundamental quality. 🔍 Conclusion: With the 5-wave pattern likely completed and the corrective phase appearing to end: A trend resumption or nested impulse wave may be forming. Breakout above ₹3,100 resistance, supported by long-term AVWAP support and strong fundamentals, gives bullish confirmation. If momentum continues, Cummins India may revisit previous highs and potentially target fresh all-time highs in the coming quarters.

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