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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

8th Apr · SEBI-Registered Analyst

Range Breakout After Base Formation – Early Bullish Reversal Signal

NATCOPHARM
The chart reflects a strong breakout above the ₹1,050–₹1,080 resistance zone, indicating a potential transition from consolidation to a fresh bullish phase. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the prolonged sideways movement between ₹780–₹1,050 appears to be a corrective base (Wave 2 or Wave 4) following a prior decline. The recent breakout suggests the beginning of a new impulsive Wave 1 or Wave 3, which could drive sustained upside if momentum continues. On the momentum front, such breakouts after extended consolidation typically align with a bullish MACD crossover, supported by expanding histogram bars. The recent strong bullish candle near resistance indicates increasing buying pressure and confirms momentum expansion. Looking at AVWAP, if anchored from the major swing high (around ₹1,400 levels), price has now reclaimed AVWAP, which had previously acted as resistance during the downtrend. This reclaim is a critical signal that the average participant is shifting into profit. The ₹1,020–₹1,050 zone now becomes a strong support area. Additionally, the breakout is backed by higher lows formation in recent weeks, suggesting accumulation before expansion, which increases the probability of follow-through. From a fundamental standpoint: Strong presence in niche agrochemicals and oncology segments Export-driven growth with improving earnings visibility Healthy balance sheet and consistent return ratios Conclusion: The structure suggests a high-probability bullish reversal setup. Sustaining above ₹1,050 can open upside towards ₹1,250–₹1,300 levels in the coming phase. As long as price holds above ₹1,000, the overall structure remains constructive, with dips likely to be accumulated.

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