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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

10th Jul 2025 · SEBI-Registered Analyst

RELAXO FOOTWEAR LTD – Bullish Reversal on Long-Term Trendline Support 👟📈

RELAXO
📌 Technical Analysis Summary: ✅ Bounce from Decade-Long Trendline Price has rebounded sharply (📈 +19%) from a multi-year ascending trendline that has acted as support since 2012. This level has held firm across cycles, indicating long-term investor confidence. ✅ MACD Bullish Divergence – Strong Signal The MACD histogram shows a higher low, while price made a lower low, forming a clear bullish divergence — a classic trend reversal setup on monthly charts. ✅ Volatility Contraction Near Support Prior candles showed smaller body sizes, hinting at selling exhaustion. The current candle shows a bullish breakout from that tight range with increasing momentum. 🔍 Fundamental Snapshot: ✅ India’s top branded player in affordable footwear ✅ High ROCE, strong brand recall, and extensive distribution ✅ Debt-free or low-leverage business with stable margins ✅ Likely beneficiary of rural demand revival and discretionary spending recovery 🧠 Elliott Wave Insight: Recent correction could be completing a Wave 2 retracement, and this up move may mark the start of a Wave 3 rally, typically the strongest wave in terms of price action. 🔑 Key Levels: Support: ₹390–₹410 (long-term trendline) Resistance Zones: ₹625 / ₹720 Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above ₹550+ with volume ✅ Conclusion: Relaxo shows high-conviction signs of a bottom reversal. The alignment of technical, trendline support and MACD divergence on the monthly timeframe — supported by strong fundamentals — makes it a compelling re-entry opportunity for long-term investors.

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