Currency Grow (CA & SEBI Reg IA Omkar Bhutada) Β· 5th Jan
π Structural Breakout Brewing in a Fundamentally Strong Industrial Leader
CUMMINSIND
π Technical + Fundamental Confluence (Based on the Chart Above)
1οΈβ£ Elliott Wave Structure
The stock appears to be progressing through a higher-degree impulsive Wave 3.
The prior rounded corrective phase (highlighted in green) resembles a Wave 2 / Wave 4 complex correction, which respected long-term moving averages.
The recent strong upward leg from the 2,800β3,000 zone signals the start of a fresh impulse, with current price consolidating just below resistance β a classic Wave 3 pause before expansion.
Projection on the chart suggests a measured move of ~35β40%, aligning with higher wave targets.
2οΈβ£ MACD Behaviour (Momentum Insight)
During the mid-2025 price correction, MACD showed bullish divergence β momentum improved while price made lower lows.
This divergence preceded the current rally, validating accumulation during consolidation.
Presently, MACD remains in positive territory, indicating trend continuation rather than exhaustion.
3οΈβ£ AVWAP (Anchored VWAP)
AVWAP anchored near the prior swing low acts as dynamic support.
Price has consistently held above AVWAP during pullbacks, confirming institutional participation.
The recent breakout above AVWAP + consolidation above it signals acceptance at higher prices, not rejection.
4οΈβ£ Moving Average Structure
Fast EMA > Medium EMA > Long EMA alignment confirms a strong bullish trend hierarchy.
Pullbacks have respected the rising EMAs, reinforcing buy-on-dips behavior rather than distribution.
π§Ύ Fundamental Strength (Why the Trend Is Trustworthy)
The company operates in a capital-efficient industrial segment with:
High ROCE, indicating strong returns on invested capital
Consistent profit and cash-flow growth across cycles
A balance sheet capable of supporting long-term expansion
Such fundamentals often fuel extended Elliott Wave 3 and 5 moves, aligning well with the current technical structure.