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CA Omkar Bhutada - SEBI Reg IA

5th Jan Β· SEBI-Registered Analyst

πŸš€ Structural Breakout Brewing in a Fundamentally Strong Industrial Leader

CUMMINSIND
πŸ“Š Technical + Fundamental Confluence (Based on the Chart Above) 1️⃣ Elliott Wave Structure The stock appears to be progressing through a higher-degree impulsive Wave 3. The prior rounded corrective phase (highlighted in green) resembles a Wave 2 / Wave 4 complex correction, which respected long-term moving averages. The recent strong upward leg from the 2,800–3,000 zone signals the start of a fresh impulse, with current price consolidating just below resistance β€” a classic Wave 3 pause before expansion. Projection on the chart suggests a measured move of ~35–40%, aligning with higher wave targets. 2️⃣ MACD Behaviour (Momentum Insight) During the mid-2025 price correction, MACD showed bullish divergence β€” momentum improved while price made lower lows. This divergence preceded the current rally, validating accumulation during consolidation. Presently, MACD remains in positive territory, indicating trend continuation rather than exhaustion. 3️⃣ AVWAP (Anchored VWAP) AVWAP anchored near the prior swing low acts as dynamic support. Price has consistently held above AVWAP during pullbacks, confirming institutional participation. The recent breakout above AVWAP + consolidation above it signals acceptance at higher prices, not rejection. 4️⃣ Moving Average Structure Fast EMA > Medium EMA > Long EMA alignment confirms a strong bullish trend hierarchy. Pullbacks have respected the rising EMAs, reinforcing buy-on-dips behavior rather than distribution. 🧾 Fundamental Strength (Why the Trend Is Trustworthy) The company operates in a capital-efficient industrial segment with: High ROCE, indicating strong returns on invested capital Consistent profit and cash-flow growth across cycles A balance sheet capable of supporting long-term expansion Such fundamentals often fuel extended Elliott Wave 3 and 5 moves, aligning well with the current technical structure.

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